Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of rain will occur tonight into Wednesday across far southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota. Additional rainfall of generally up to 1 inch.

UPDATE

Issued at 1116 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Main change to the forecast is the development of fog across the Devils Lake Basin with a north wind helping to expand fog south in Eddy and Nelson county later on. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10am with the potential for expansion into the northern Red River Valley as some cams suggest a more eastward expansion under the low stratus.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

..Synopsis

As of early this afternoon, satellite shows expansive stratus over this FA. Pockets of drizzle, once prevalent this morning, have been becoming spottier as the day wears on. Winds have also subsided, as winds aloft to mix down are not nearly as strong as earlier today. Therefore, for the rest of today, expect gray, cloudy, and chilly conditions with a stiff but slowly subsiding northerly wind. Zooming out, an upper low over the central US is propagating to the north and east this afternoon. Surface low pressure, currently just north of Kansas City MO, will track to the north and east overnight into Wednesday. This will set the stage for another round of rainfall tonight into Wednesday, albeit with a further southeast track compared to yesterdays system, rain will be confined to southeastern ND and west central MN. Rain will end Wednesday night. One other hazard to look out for the next few mornings is fog. Expansive cloud cover and lingering winds should keep fog coverage in check Wednesday morning. The exception could be the Devils Lake Basin where clearing skies may sneak in, but predictability in this is low. Thursday morning brings the potential for more widespread fog as the low departs, taking lingering cloud cover with it.

Behind this system, ridging will build in as we go into the weekend, slowly flattening over the weekend. This will leave us dry and warm for early November, with high temperatures in the 40s to 50s. There are signs a system or two may try to ride the top of the ridge, especially as we transition to northwest/zonal flow Sunday into next Monday. At this time, precipitation totals appear meager at best.

..Rain Tonight into Wednesday

As the previously mentioned surface and upper low track to the north and east from the Central Plains this afternoon towards Lake Superior by early Thursday. As it does so, rain will develop over the Upper Midwest. The western edge of this systems deformation band will impact far southeastern ND into west central MN. The northwestern edge of the precipitation shield will have a quite tight gradient in rainfall totals. This western edge looks to extend from near Gwinner to near Fargo to the Red Lakes and Baudette. Small shifts in the systems track will lead to locations along this line receiving little (a tenth or two) of rain or more significant values (half inch or so). Locations in west central MN, where the deformation band will have a residence time of up to 24 hours, will see the highest rainfall totals. Rainfall totals of up to 1 inch (locally higher) are forecasted in our southeastern tier of counties.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1123 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

LIFR is becoming more widespread as expected tonight with IFR elsewhere. Winds remain northerly through the period with gust increasing back to 20-25kts in the late morning. LIFR to IFR will dominate the area through the morning before clearing begins from the west in the afternoon. With a Dense Fog Advisory in effect did put a 1/4SM in KDVL through 10z after which fog should push east. Whatever clearing does occur late in the period will be short lived with with a return to IFR/LIFR tomorrow night after the current taf period affecting all sites into Thursday.

FGF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ006-007- 014-015-024-026-028-029-054. MN...None.