Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered very light rain showers this evening, then mainly dry until later in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

..Synopsis

Water vapor loop shows split flow with the main upper low over ID/UT, and west to southwest flow over the Plains. Weak frontal boundary sinking down over our region has brought a few weak rain showers. Even with cold air advection behind the front, plenty of clouds into tonight should help keep temps in the upper 40s into the 50s. The upper low will come eastward into SD and Neb tomorrow, bringing clouds but much of the precipitation remains south of our CWA. The weakening upper low pulls further southeast of us on Monday, with a blocking ridge over the Plains mid-week. Most of the ensemble members bring a shortwave over the top of the ridge late Wednesday and into Thursday, with ridging to weak southwesterly flow setting up after that.

..Light precipitation chances this evening

Light rain showers near the frontal boundary coming down have dissipated, but many of the CAMs, including the HRRR and RAP, have redevelopment between 00Z and 03Z a bit further south. Amounts and impacts will be minimal, a few hundredths at most, but can't rule out a few sprinkles before midnight. The main upper low still out over the Rockies starts to come east into the Plains, but ensemble members are in good agreement on impacts remaining to the south of our area. Only locations right near the SD border have any probability of 0.01 of rain, and less than 20 percent at that. Sunday and the first part of the work week look to remain dry, but a shortwave coming out late Wednesday into Thursday could bring some light precipitation. Decent probabilities of around 60 percent for at least 0.01 of rain, but very low chances for anything more than half an inch.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings at most of the TAF sites. Think ceilings will gradually improve to a mix of MVFR to VFR this evening, then eventually all VFR by the end of the period. At this point the the probabilities of visibility less than a mile at the TAF sites are below 20 percent, so will keep any restrictions to visibility out for now but not completely out of the question. Winds that are northeasterly will become more northerly and then back to northeasterly by the end of the period, but most airports will see less than 12 kts in speed.

FGF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.