Area Forecast Discussion

SYNOPSIS

Mild temperatures, mainly dry conditions and occasional afternoon breezes are expected into the weekend. Despite the dry forecast, a few instances of flooding continues. Stay away from waterways and if you come to a flooded road, turn around, don't drown.

DISCUSSION...Today and Thursday

A trough is visible in satellite imagery, currently centered over northern Nevada. This feature is forecast to follow an eastward trajectory through Utah and into Colorado by this evening. Most precipitation with this trough will stay well north of Arizona, with just a slight (10%) chance of light showers near the Four Corners. The primary impact will be some breezy west to northwest winds with gusts as high as 25-35 mph for the higher terrain along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Other than that, expect daytime temperatures a few degrees below normal. Lighter winds and continued dry conditions are expected on Thursday following the departure of the trough.

Friday through Monday...Another weak shortwave approaches on Friday and may bring just enough moisture and lift for some showers over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. Into the weekend, ensemble guidance generally favors a setup with a weak cut-off low off the coast of Baja California and high pressure over the Great Basin. Expect increasing heights aloft and warming temperatures, approaching near climatological normals this weekend. We will also see surface pressure gradients shift to support northeast winds. Some highly localized northeast gusts up to 20-30 mph will be possible along/south of the Mogollon Rim, especially on Saturday morning and Sunday morning.

Tuesday and onward...Long term ensemble guidance hints at the potential for some weak shortwaves to propagate overhead early next week and a very slight chance for showers on Tuesday. A deeper pacific trough may try to move across our region by the middle- late part of next week, but model agreement breaks down at this point and this solution is not a guarantee.

AVIATION...Wednesday 04/12Z through Thursday 05/12Z

VFR conditions. Winds W/SW 10-15 kts with gusts 20-30 kts from 17Z-02Z, light and VRB otherwise.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 05/12Z through Saturday 07/12Z...VFR conditions. Winds VRB 5-10 kts on Thursday, becoming N/NE 5-15 kts Thursday night into Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Wednesday and Thursday..Dry conditions with seasonably cool temperatures. Winds becoming west to northwest at 5- 15 mph on Wednesday, with gusts as high as 25-35 mph for the higher terrain along/north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Thursday will see a return to light and variable winds at 5-10 mph. Minimum RH around 30%-50% each day.

Friday through Sunday...Mainly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. Slight (10-20%) chance of showers over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Friday afternoon. Winds becoming north to northeast at at 5-15 mph on Friday and Saturday. Local gusts to 20-30 mph along and south of the Mogollon Rim, especially Saturday morning/Sunday morning. Light and variable winds return on Sunday afternoon.

FGZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.