Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Considerable cloud cover and periods of fog may be linger into the weekend. Cloud cover could have an impact on the potential for hard freeze conditions Friday and Saturday mornings.

- An extended period of dry weather is likely through most of next week as temperatures rise back above normal.

UPDATE

Issued at 306 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

As mentioned in the previous update, watching a couple areas of stratus this morning. The first is near and east of I-29 from the low pressure slowly meandering east over MN. Seeing some patchy drizzle with these very low ceilings as well east of I-29. Can't rule out some patchy fog this morning, but not expecting any widespread issues. Next area of stratus is working south from northern SD, which should get to Sioux Falls by 6 AM. Stratus continues through the day and into tonight. May also see stratus linger into much of Friday as it takes until the late morning/early afternoon for lower level flow to shift from northerly to southwesterly. Breezy northerly winds taper down later this evening, with daytime gusts around 25 mph.

Clouds limit our diurnal temperature range and may wreak havoc on potential for widespread hard freeze tonight. Should only see a couple degrees of warming today - remaining in the 40s. If we stay more socked in with lower stratus, we may struggle to fall much further than the mid 30s tonight. Areas that clear could drop into the lower 30s. Slightly warmer Friday although highs will be dependent on stratus. Stratus and/or fog may develop again Friday night/early Saturday with light southeast flow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The upper and surface low located over Minnesota and Wisconsin will continue to occlude while slowly moving east through the remainder of this afternoon and evening. To the northwest we see an upper ridge and surface high pressure building in. Much drier air through the mid-levels will work into the region, ending light rain/drizzle from northwest to southeast through the overnight. All precipitation should be ended/east of the region by daybreak Thursday. Overnight and through most of the day Thursday northwest winds remain breezy with widespread gusts of 15-25 mph. Occasional gusts up to around 30 mph are possible along the Buffalo Ridge. Mixy winds keep overnight lows a bit warmer than they would otherwise be. However, they are still expected to be colder than we've seen recently, in the low to mid 30s, warmest over northwest Iowa.

By late Thursday afternoon the upper ridge axis will cross through the region. Pressure gradients will relax and winds will taper off from the late afternoon and through the evening. Though dry air will be present in the mid-levels, a pesky thin layer of moisture just above the boundary layer will keep broken clouds in our forecast through the remainder of Thursday. This along with weak CAA will limit highs to the low to mid 40s. Overnight winds become light and variable while clouds slowly break up. Lows will drop into the mid 20s to low 30s by daybreak Friday. For many, this will be the first hard freeze of the season.

Friday clouds will finally break up and become mostly sunny in the afternoon. The previously mentioned surface high will continue to move east, turning light winds to the south. Highs for Friday will be seasonably cool in the 40s, with overnight lows falling to the mid 20s to low 30s. A series of upper waves will pass through the region Saturday into early next week. Mid-levels continue to be very dry, so not expecting precipitation with these. However, a few low- level clouds may be possible. Highs during this period will warm from the 50s Saturday, to low 60s Sunday, to mid 60s Monday. Lows will generally be in the 30s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 534 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

MVFR/IFR stratus continues to expand over the area early this morning. Patchy fog/drizzle has also been leading to some MVFR to IFR visibility at times east of I-29; this should improve by mid/late morning. There has been some clearing in the stratus across southeastern SD earlier this morning; however, stratus moving south from northeastern SD should reach KFSD by 13z, and KSUX by 15z. With the western edge having more of a northwestern slant, it may take longer into the afternoon to reach terminals across south central SD. Once ceilings drop to MVFR/IFR, expect them to stay at these levels through the rest of the period.

Breezy northwest wind gust up to 25 knots continue through the day, slowly tapering down this evening. Winds become light and somewhat variable overnight which may lead to some very patchy fog development.

FSD WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None.