Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances return from Sunday into Monday with the arrival of a weak cold front. A few strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and wind threats are possible Sunday afternoon and evening. - Slightly cooler temperatures with low rain chances will prevail through the middle portion of the workweek.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

High pressure, centered atop North and Central Texas, will once again lead to well above normal temperatures throughout the region this afternoon. Although the area of high pressure has remained nearly stationary over our region, heights have gradually been on a downward trend resulting in sub-100 degree weather across a large part of the region. Today's weather should be no different as the ridge continues to weaken, evident by the 4dm decrease of the 500mb heights over the last 24 hours.

Effective low-level mixing will keep afternoon heat index values at or slightly below actual temperature, preventing the need for any heat-related products. Unfortunately, effective low-level mixing will result in afternoon minimum relative humidity between 25-35%. The threat for additional grass fires will increase this afternoon as winds pick up between 10-15 mph. For that reason, a Grass Fire Danger Statement has been issued for this afternoon.

Overnight, tranquil weather conditions are expected to continue with southerly flow in place. Temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s across much of the region with the exception of the DFW Metroplex, where upper 70s will prevail.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A pattern change will commence on Sunday as shortwaves move from west to east across the Central Plains. A cold front will move south into Oklahoma, stalling along the I-40 corridor. A weakly defined surface low may also develop through the day, aiding in northward moisture transport across the region. With the area of high pressure shunted south, subsidence will be on the downward trend, allowing for a few isolated mid-day showers west of I-35. By the afternoon, a trough axis will progress westward with embedded shortwaves adding mid-level forcing for ascent. As instability increases, scattered thunderstorms are looking probable just west/northwest of our region. With general storm motion expected to be south to south/southeast, this activity will likely work its way into our region by late in the afternoon and evening hours. The thermodynamic environment will become favorable for a few strong to severe storms capable of producing isolated damaging winds and hail. The greatest coverage of precipitation will remain along and west of I-35. With the stalled front nearby and the shortwave still overhead, convection may persist overnight and into early Monday morning, however, the overall severe weather threat decreases overnight.

On Monday, the frontal boundary will remain stalled across the region, leading to additional showers and storms in the afternoon. Exact location of where the storms may develop remains uncertain and will vary on the placement of outflows. However, there will be a potential for strong winds with any storm that develops given the continued warm weather and dry near-surface air.

A shallow front may move into North Texas on Tuesday, helping to maintain a low probability of precipitation generally west of I-35. This front will once again lack significantly cooler air as post-frontal temperatures will still be in the 90s across the region.

By Thursday, ridging will once again begin to build across the Southern Plains, deflecting any shortwaves away from the region and reducing our rain chances to near 0%. This also means we will begin to see an upward trend in afternoon temperatures as highs return to the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows remaining in the lower to mid 70s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

High pressure aloft will remain in control for another 18 to 24 hours, before weakening late Sunday as an upper trough sweeps through the Plains and a weak cold front approaches. Until then, VFR and south to southeast winds around 10kt will continue.

The aforementioned pattern shift will affect the local weather by Sunday evening, with a broken line of thunderstorms initially developing near the Bowie (UKW) corner post sometime near or shortly after 21Z Sunday. This convection will advance southeast towards the DFW Metroplex late afternoon into Sunday evening, with the front being enhanced by southeastward-propagating outflow boundaries. Recent CAM guidance indicates a weakening trend as storms encroach on the Metroplex airports, due to decreasing instability and increasing subsidence the farther south and east you go.

With that being said, it is likely that at least a few storms will survive, warranting VCTS from 21/00Z to 21/03Z for the extended portion of the DFW TAF. Will also indicate a shift to north winds during the VCTS period associated with the passage of the gust front. Convection will continue to weaken Sunday night, with all activity likely dissipating by 21/06Z or shortly after. Winds will return to light south or light and variable for the rest of the night, before shifting to light north on Monday as the front eases through.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FWD WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.