Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a low chance (20-30%) for patchy fog to develop across portions of the Big Country and East Texas tonight into Wednesday morning.

- Another cold front Thursday night should bring near to slightly below normal temperatures to the region for the weekend.

- Very isolated light showers (10-20% coverage) are possible on Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1040 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

As yesterday's storm system continues to move off towards the east, cool and dry fall air will work its way across the Southern Plains tonight into tomorrow. Winds should be light and out of the northwest as the primary surface low continues to move off into the Upper Midwest. While most should stay clear tonight, patchy fog may develop across portions of North and Central Texas with overnight RH near 100% and areas of near-calm winds possible (particularly in the Big Country and Brazos Valley).

Upper-level flow will become increasingly zonal in advance of the next shortwave which should traverse the region later this week. As a result, conditions will be cool and pleasant with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s (near to slightly above normal for this time of year).

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1040 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

By Thursday night, widespread cloud cover will re-develop across the region as another shortwave ejects southeast out of the Central Rockies. Due to a robust mid-level layer of dry air aloft, any measurable precipitation looks to be unlikely. However, there is a very low chance (10%) of a stray light shower or two near the Red River (north of Highway 370). At the surface, a cold front will move northwest to southeast Thursday evening into Thursday night bringing behind it gusty northwest winds 10-20 mph.

The upper-level pattern will be generally unsettled heading into the weekend with another brief period of zonal flow aloft before another trough moves across the Central CONUS this weekend. Synoptic-scale forcing for ascent will keep the region generally cloudy with mid and upper-level clouds. General cloudiness behind the late-week cold front along with weak CAA at the surface should result in near to slightly below normal temperatures with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Low rain chances (10-20%) will work their way first into Central Texas, then North Texas throughout the day on Saturday as persistent lift and moisture advection helps to erode the mid-level dry layer that will be present earlier in the week. As such, isolated light rain showers will be possible Saturday with the greatest rain chances south of I-20.

By the beginning of next week, ridging looks to build back in from the west as the unsettled weather pattern shifts towards the East Coast. As skies clear and southerly winds at the surface return, high temperatures should warm back into the low and mid-70s with lows back into the 50s across the region (slightly above normal for this time of year).

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Weak northwest winds and VFR conditions will prevail through 18Z. Patchy fog may develop between 06Z and 15Z in rural areas across North and Central Texas, but are not expected to impact TAF sites. Winds will likely be near calm and variable between 21Z and 00Z before switching to become weak and out of the southwest (120-160 <5 kts).

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1244 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FWD WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.