Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for rain this evening and tonight south of U.S. 40.

- Temperatures near to slightly below normal through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1210 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Current observations have a the upper low that has been impacting the area the last few days moving away to the northeast, while a small upper ridge is moving in from the west. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient is in place over the area, helping to keep the winds below 10 mph. With the light winds and clearer skies from the moisture moving on, temperatures remain forecast to cool to near or below freezing for most of the area. Those south of I-70 in NW Kansas may be able to stay more in the mid to upper 30s with dewpoints currently in the mid 30s.

The daytime hours are forecast to start with the ridge in place over the area, keeping the surface pressure gradient and winds weak. A few high clouds are forecast to be moving over as a trough nears from the west, leading to a mix of sun and clouds. With this, temperatures are forecast to not change much from yesterday, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. As the day progresses and the upper trough nears, a surface low is forecast to develop on the lee of the Rockies to the southwest of the area. It should then slide southeast through the late afternoon and evening hours. As it does so, rain showers and maybe a storm or two are forecast to develop. The favored area is those along and south of Highway 40, and will most likely occur between 5pm and midnight. With that system moving through, cloudy skies are then forecast overnight. While the cloud cover should help to keep temperatures a bit warmer, cold air behind the system is forecast to still drop temperatures in the 30s.

Thursday is forecast to be a little cooler behind the system with highs in the low to mid 50s. This will likely be added by initial cloud cover that should burn off as the day goes along. Otherwise, with the area on the back side of the upper trough and some broader ridging forecast to take over, there's not much else to Thursday. Winds should be a bit stronger from the north around 10-20 mph. The overnight hours are forecast to get cold as the winds lighten and skies remain clear. Temperatures should drop into the 20s and low 30s, giving us a more solid taste of Autumn.

Friday is forecast to be one of the more milder days as we likely go from broad ridging aloft, to weak troughing. This weak troughing should help bring in some mid to higher level cloud cover, keeping skies a mix of partly and mostly cloudy through the day. Temperatures should warm into the mid to upper 50s as long as the cloud cover doesn't get too thick. Winds are forecast to be light as the pressure gradient across the High Plains should be weak. Overnight, temperatures should again lower to near freezing with the winds remaining light and the cloud cover likely thinning a bit.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 245 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Model guidance continues to show signs of a small upper-level ridge system exiting the Great Plains this weekend. Behind this ridge, a mini-trough enters the region, which guidance also shows is likely to be positively tilted. Thus, 300-500 mb flow is likely to be meridional through Sunday. North to northeast flow aloft should dominate the weekend until another, much larger, ridging system starts to build throughout the County Warning Area (CWA) on Monday. Ensembles mostly agree on a transition to zonal westerly flow Monday as the ridge axis passes through the region. Thereafter, southwesterlies are expected as the ridge propagates eastward into the Missouri and Mississippi river valleys. At the surface, high pressure prevails through Monday. There is medium confidence on a frontal passage Tuesday, but nothing is expected to come of it other than a windshift.

Guidance foresees a lack of any significant weather through this long-term forecast period as dry air takes control. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) currently stand at 5% or less for the entire CWA throughout the weekend and beginning of next week. Dewpoints in the 30s and 40s as well as Relative Humidities (RHs) in the 30-50% range signal dry air not only aloft but at the surface as well. Cooler than normal temperatures present initially as highs in the 50s are expected everywhere in the Tri-State area through Saturday. Ensembles then project a bit of a warming trend with this ridging pattern as highs in the 60s are more likely heading into next week. Overnight lows are also forecast to be colder earlier in this four- day period, with around freezing to below freezing lows Saturday/Sunday. Slightly warmer low temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday mornings as upper 30s to low 40s are projected. Fire weather concerns remain very low as RH values mostly stay above 25% and surface winds are forecasted to be on the weaker side (5-15 mph gusting up to 20 mph).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 408 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Winds should remain roughly from the west/northwest around 10 kts or less. There is a 5% chance for a shower or storm to move near KGLD around 06Z.

GLD WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.