Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of rain, gusty winds, and a few rumbles of thunder continue through Thursday, with the heaviest periods of rain coming now through tonight.

- For drought stricken northern Wisconsin, there is a 80-100% chance of an additional 0.50-1.00" of rain and a 50-70% chance of over an inch of rain. - Except for near normal temperatures on Friday, above normal temperatures are expected throughout the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A slow moving low pressure system across northwest Missouri will make its wave into Minnesota/western Wisconsin late tonight, then into Ontario late Wednesday night. This system will bring periods of showers through Wednesday night. A few non-severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and tonight. The heaviest periods of rain coming now through tonight. A 500mb trough is expected to swing across the western Great Lakes on Thursday, bringing additional chances of showers. Any lingering should across eastern Wisconsin will end Thursday night. For drought stricken northern Wisconsin, there is a 80-100% chance of an additional 0.50-1.00" of rain and a 50-70% chance of over an inch of rain.

Behind the departing system, blustery northwest winds can be expected that will usher in cooler air Thursday night. Above normal temperatures to continue Wednesday and Thursday, then return closer to normal on Friday before above normal temperatures return for the weekend and continue through much of next week. Mainly dry conditions expected Friday through Tuesday.

AVIATION

for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1124 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Poor flying conditions are expected through the TAF period. Despite a patch of VFR/MVFR conditions across far eastern Wisconsin, lower CIGs from southern Wisconsin are expected to advect northward within the next few hours. Low stratus will linger on in the region, with ceilings likely to remain IFR/LIFR at times overnight. Visibility will dip at times as well as on and off showers move through the region and patchy fog develops near the surface. Lightning and thunder continue to be too low in confidence to include in the current TAF cycle. CIGs may rise to MVFR across eastern Wisconsin during the day on Wednesday and may drop again to IFR/LIFR Wednesday evening while CIGs remain low across central and north-central Wisconsin.

Winds are expected to diminish some overnight at the surface, but LLWS will be present at the eastern terminals just off the surface. Wind gusts then increase again during the day Wednesday, with gusts returning to around 15-20 knots at times thus ending the LLWS. Winds should be south to southeasterly through Wednesday. Surface winds will ease again Wednesday evening as they turn southwesterly.

MARINE

Issued at 1238 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A prolonged period of gusty south to southeast winds and large waves on Lake Michigan will continue into Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in for the Lake Michigan nearshore waters through Wednesday evening. Gusty winds on the bay should subside late this afternoon where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 6 PM. Later tonight, will need to monitor for fog as dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s are moving over the bay and lake where water temps are in the 50s. Also, winds should ease later tonight to help for the formation of fog. Otherwise, Winds will shift to the north on Thursday, possibly gusting to near 25 kts as the system departs to the east. Additional marine headlines may be needed for this period.

GRB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.