Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be around at times this weekend.

- An isolated severe storm with damaging winds is possible this afternoon and Sunday afternoon.

- Shower and storm chances persist for much of the time into early next week, with temperatures turning cooler next week

DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)

Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Widely scattered showers and storms will continue across portions of central Indiana this afternoon, though modest instability and weak shear is limiting coverage and intensity significantly. This activity should largely come to an end this evening as heating is lost, though a weak upper wave may allow a few showers to linger, mainly north.

A slightly more substantial upper wave arrives Sunday, and will promote scattered to potentially widespread showers and storms, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. Modest instability and deep layer shear may promote slightly better coverage and a slight uptick in intensity tomorrow, and possibly a small hail threat in addition to the localized strong wind threat, and the continued heavy downpour threat.

Though the surface front pushes further south as we move into the work week, a slow-moving upper level low will pass through the area through mid week, with chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms lingering into Wednesday, though chances should be highest when diurnally favored/near peak heating.

High pressure in the wake of the upper low should bring mild and pleasant weather to the area late in the week.

Temperatures will remain warm through Sunday, though the gradient will be relatively strong with the surface front in the area. Once the front is shuttled southward, temperatures through the remainder of the period should be near to below normal, with highs largely in the 70s and lows largely in the 50s from Monday onward.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 603 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Impacts:

- Mainly VFR conditions are expected this TAF Period.

Discussion:

Diurnal showers associated with a passing upper wave will diminish this evening leading to VFR cigs overnight.

Another short wave is expected to pass on Sunday along with a surface cold front. This will continue to bring VFR cigs through the morning. HRRR suggests a few scattered light rain showers possible across the northern half of the state, but confidence is low. Will use a VCSH mention for now.

By late Sunday afternoon the surface front will have passed and winds will become northerly. Models suggest cold air advection MVFR CU arriving late on Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

IND WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.