Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and drier weather will develop this weekend into next week, with frost or a light freeze possible in some areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Today and Tonight...

The cold front responsible for showers and storms overnight and into this morning will be shifting east across the area today, clearing the Pine Belt by early afternoon. In its wake, cooler and drier air associated with building high pressure will signal an end to rain chances and the period of warmth and humidity we have recently experienced. Highs today will be a bit lower than yesterday for most, topping out in the lower 70s F northwest to near 80 F in the southeast. Lows tonight, however, will be much chillier, dropping down into the 40s F for most to near 50 F in the Pine Belt.

Thursday through early next week...

While the pattern will be substantially more suppressed heading into the weekend with high pressure and continental air largely in control, an active southern stream jet will provide for an opportunity for increased cloudiness and perhaps an isolated shower or two through early next week. Overall, though, most locations will stay dry and those that do see a brief shower won't see much. The next 7 days will likely be dry and cool as overnight lows average 5 to 10 F below climate normals for this time of year.

Lows temperatures at times will flirt with the mid to lower 30s F, particularly in some of the typically cooler spots. This could result in some chance for a light frost though most places likely manage to stay above freezing. The coldest night appears to come Sunday night before we begin a slow moderating trend (lows "only" down into the lower 40s F) into the middle of next week. Regardless, these near-freezing temperatures serve to remind that now is a good time to begin practicing those winter safety practices. Ensuring plants, pets, and people are considered for as nights begin to more routinely threaten frost/freeze. /86/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms moving east across the forecast area will bring periods of reduced visibility, variable ceilings, and potentially gusty winds. Trends through 12Z however are for prevailing MVFR to IFR ceilings at most sites before westerly winds increase and bring drier air into the area. /NF/86/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

JAN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.