Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor tidal flooding within the St Johns River continues with decreasing high tide levels through the end of the week.

- High risk of rip currents continues at northeast FL beaches today.

- Isolated storms possible near the I-75 corridor late this afternoon

- Localized dense fog possible tonight/Thursday morning and again Friday morning

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Widespread low stratus has developed across inland areas of southeast GA this morning, however it is unlikely to develop at airfields in northeast FL or near the coast this morning. Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the daytime and evening hours. As the Atlantic sea breeze moves inland a few showers may develop near the KGNV terminal but chances remain less than 20%. Otherwise, easterly winds will prevail through the afternoon with gusts around 15 knots. Winds will settle down around 22z and trend calm through the overnight hours. While widespread fog doesn't appear as likely to impact area terminals Thursday morning, shallow ground fog may develop at inland airfields after 06z tonight.

MARINE

High pressure shifts further eastward into the western Atlantic as a cold front moves into the southeastern states today into tonight. Coastal troughing over the area weakens with winds and seas subsiding to caution levels for the offshore waters today. The cold front slows its progress allowing winds to shift to southeasterly on Thursday then southwesterly on Friday. The cold front moves through the area late Friday into Saturday with winds shifting to northwesterly then northerly in its wake this weekend. A reinforcing cold front will then cross our local waters on Sunday night and Monday morning, with high pressure building into the southeastern states providing a surge of breezy northerly winds in the wake of this frontal passage.

Rip Currents / High Surf:

A high risk of rip currents continues for NE FL beaches today with a higher end moderate risk at SE GA. Winds continue to weaken and shift to offshore for the end of the week. A lingering easterly ocean swell will still yield a moderate risk at all area beaches on Thursday and Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Winds will continue to decrease through the end of the week as a cold front approaches. Today, easterly to southeasterly winds are expected with the Atlantic sea breeze developing this afternoon. As winds ease up Thursday, dispersions will fall to poor or low levels, especially at the coast. A weak and mostly dry cold front will push across Friday night, ushering in a drier and cooler airmass over the weekend and into early next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog formation are possible for inland locations along and north of the I- 10 corridor this morning. Areas to widespread fog will be possible during the predawn and early morning hours on Thursday and Friday across the area.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Tidal levels along the St Johns river continue to reach minor flood stage at high tide mainly from downtown Jacksonville southward. Easterly winds decrease today and shift to southeasterly on Thursday allowing for water to gradually drain into the Atlantic. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the entire middle and lower St Johns River zones. Despite the flow shifting to offshore Friday into the weekend, recent heavy rainfall over central FL may allow elevated water levels to linger in the St Johns river basin as the floodwater drain northward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

JAX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for FLZ038-125- 132-137-325-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.