Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Inland Today. Isolated strong storms possible for locations west of U.S. Highway 301. Wind Gusts of 35-45 mph and occasional lightning strikes

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon & Evening TStorms Sun through Wed. Isolated Strong Storms and Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at All Area Beaches

- Strengthening Onshore Winds Will Increase Marine Hazards from Late Wednesday to Friday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Scattered Afternoon and Early Evening Thunderstorms at Inland Locations.

- Isolated strong storms possible at inland locations this afternoon and early evening

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at All Area Beaches.

A closed, weak upper low continues to retrograde across the Florida peninsula early this afternoon. The area remains on the northern side of this low where convergent flow aloft is resulting in suppressed convective development. An associated cold pool aloft has also shifted westward, resulting in wake warming aloft leading to less instability this afternoon. Through the course of the afternoon, widely scattered showers are likely to develop inland this afternoon where adequate deep moisture resides. There is some drier air in place across SE GA which may amplify the potential for stronger outflow wind gusts late this afternoon, however, the potential for strong storms will be fairly limited this afternoon with most reasonable area for stronger development to focus across north-central FL this afternoon. Convection will fade this evening, but shower development over the Atlantic waters tonight may be able to push into the beaches during the early morning hours Sunday.

Temperatures today will rise into the the low 90s inland for the Suwannee Valley and inland SE GA where dewpoints are broadly in the upper 60s (drier). Temperatures will be cooler at the coast due to the onshore winds and around 90 for inland areas of NE FL. As winds calm tonight, temperatures will gradually cool to the low 70s inland and mid 70s at the coast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period: (Sunday through Monday night)

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall possible

On Sunday, a weak surface ridge will be centered to the northeast, while a 500mb trough is located overhead. The location of the surface high will keep the flow onshore Sunday. Convection will initiate late in the morning with diurnal heating as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland. This convection will push further inland through the afternoon, with enhancement in coverage and strength due to upper instability. Temperatures will trend a little above average Sunday and Sunday night.

On Monday, the weather pattern will remain nearly the same with onshore flow continuing. Once again the convection will largely move inland through the day, with scattered to numerous storms expected. Near to a little above average temperatures forecast for Monday and Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period: (Tuesday through Saturday)

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall possible

An inverted surface trough will build over the area Tuesday. This trough will then move offshore Tuesday night, and track north northeast away from the area as a low Wednesday trough Saturday. High pressure will build down the eastern US on the back side of this low, with this ridge extending into local area. An upper trough will dip into area starting in the middle of the week.

Due to the inverted trough, then location of low, above average precipitation chances are expected early in this period. For the rest of this period, precipitation chances will be lower due to the position of the high, with greatest chances over eastern counties.

Temperatures will be near to a little above average through mid week, then trend below average.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Increased confidence with increasing thunderstorm potential across inland NE FL terminals this afternoon, particularly at KGNV from 19z- 23z. Elsewhere, confidence in direct SHRA/TSRA impacts is low vicinity showers cannot be entirely ruled out. There will be higher chances for morning SHRA at coastal terminals with a transition to TSRA after 15z, especially at KSSI/KGNV/KSGJ. Outside of convective influence, VFR conditions continue with cumulus bases at or above 3kft this afternoon. Light winds favor an ENE to E direction will persist through the afternoon before waning this evening and trending calm overnight. As winds calm, light fog may develop at inland site with best potential at KVQQ. Light ENE winds will redevelop with potential coastal showers between 13-15z on Sunday.

MARINE

Widely scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms through the day with increasing coverage after midnight tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are then expected early next week as a disturbance aloft moves slowly northeastward across our area. East to northeasterly winds will otherwise prevail through the early portions of next week, with speeds and seas remaining below Caution levels. Strong high pressure then wedge down the southeastern seaboard, resulting in surge of northeasterly winds that will likely bring Small Craft Advisory conditions beginning later on Wednesday and continuing through the late portions of next week.

Rip Currents: Persistent east-northeasterly winds will keep a moderate rip current risk in place through the weekend and early portions of next week at all area beaches. A high risk is likely beginning later on Wednesday and continuing through the late portions of next week as northeasterly winds strengthen and breaker heights build.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure will be northeast of the area through Sunday night. An inverted trough will slide across the area Monday, then develop into a low east of the area Tuesday. This low will then track away to the north northeast. As the low moves away, high pressure will build down the east coast of the US, and into the local area.

Fog Potential...No significant fog expected. However, patchy fog is possible for inland areas in the early morning hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

JAX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.