Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Dewpoints will increase tonight through Sunday.

- Precipitation chances will be low through next week as high pressure remains centered nearly overhead

- A weak "frontal" boundary will bring some drier air back into the region Wednesday through late next week.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A ridge, at the surface and aloft, is over the lower Mississippi Vally and northwest gulf coast this afternoon. While dewpoints have increased slightly from 24hrs ago, the local airmass remains fairly dry. Temperatures are still forecast to climb into the 90s area this afternoon, however heat index values are forecast to be only slightly higher than actual temps with the lower dewpoints.

The surface ridge will slip east through tonight which will turn the flow back onshore allowing dewpoints to increase once again. PWAT values will also climb to around 2" by Monday afternoon. Even with the increase in moisture, the upper ridge will remain in place keeping chances of rain suppressed. However, an isolated shower and storm will be possible late tonight/early Sunday along the coast and additional diurnal storms may return by Sunday and Monday afternoons, but mainly along the sea breeze along the south of I-10.

The ridge aloft will erode Tuesday as a short wave moves across the upper plains, however rain chances will remain fairly limited. The official forecast is indicating isolated storms at best by Tue afternoon, however chances may increase in future forecasts. A weak cold front my move into the region late Tuesday or early Wednesday with showers and storms becoming possible along the boundary.

A drier airmass may filter back into the region by late week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions ongoing and likely to prevail for most of the forecast period. While confidence in fog remains low enough to forgo putting it in this cycle, it remains "high" enough to warrant mentioning it in the discussion. With moisture seeping back in, there could be some areas of patchy MVFR fog from around 09 to 14Z.

MARINE

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Light east to southeast winds and low seas will exist across the coastal waters through Tuesday. A weak frontal boundary may move into the coastal waters Wednesday briefly switching winds offshore and increasing rain chances.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Min RH values of mid 30s to mid 40s are anticipated this afternoon, however moisture levels will increase Sunday and Monday as an onshore flow becomes established.

LCH WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.