Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rainfall totals from 0.20 to 2.00 inches have been estimated by radar.

- Post-frontal fog has developed and may stick around through sunrise. Isolated dense fog is possible. If a widespread threat manifests, a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed Wednesday AM.

- Temperatures will be more seasonable behind the front. Temps in the 70s anticipated through Fri.

- A secondary front early in the weekend will bring a colder and drier airmass to the region over the weekend. Expect chilly overnight conditions.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The pre-frontal boundary is working east through the forecast area with showers still ongoing from Vermilion to Avoyelles parishes. Most of these showers are light, however there are some embedded cells along a distinct southwest to northeast line with intermixed rain rates ranging roughly 0.50 to 1.50 inches per hour. The main focus of forcing has lifted into the Midsouth region, but the near-sfc trof axis is lagging behind, now analyzed near the LA/TX line, keeping some low level gradient flow overtop the frontal boundary and marching it eastward.

This slow movement is allowing for efficient rainfall (boundary moving within airmass of PWAT 1.90 inches; well above the 90th percentile for 11/03) to slowly pass over very parched sfc soils. Radar estimates of 0.20 to 2.00 inches of rain have fallen area- wide. Much needed rainfall!

Winds are not anticipated to increase by much into Wednesday morning. However, cooler temps are being observed as dewpoints are lowering slowly. Ground moisture combined with post-frontal subsidence through the morning may allow areas of patchy to isolated dense fog to develop. No dense fog is issued now but may come if patches of ongoing fog do not dissipate. Another chance of fog will be possible Thursday morning with low winds combining with sfc moisture again.

Slightly drier airmass will filter southward through Wednesday, but dewpoints won't drop by very much. Dewpoints floating in the 40s to 50s will keep us from feeling too much like fall, but will allow for overnight lows to cool into this range through the end of the work week.

The pattern remains active into the first part of next week. Another upper trof is expected to swipe across the southeast US over the weekend, sending a reinforcing cold front into the region. Lows, as mentioned, in the 40s and 50s may then be driven into the upper 30s (central LA) to 40s to the coastline into the first part of next week. A lack of moisture return from now through early next week means forecast rain chances are returning to less than 10 percent with any of the coming disturbances. However, these scenarios being several days away, any trend towards inland entrenchment of moisture combined with lift could bring about an increase in rain chances once again.

11/Calhoun

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Convection continues to move across Acadiana tonight, causing reductions in VIS and areas of MVFR ceilings near/at ARA/LFT through the next few hours. Elsewhere, mainly VFR conditions will prevail outside of areas of patchy post-frontal fog that may cause issues closer to sunrise at LCH and AEX. After sunrise, all sites maintain VFR along with light NNW winds which will become calm with sunset.

MARINE

Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Showers are moving across coastal waters along the leading edge of a cold frontal boundary. These will clear west to east by Wednesday morning. Elevated northwest winds will spread over waters from west to east through Wednesday morning, however, winds will remain below advisory criteria. Small craft should exercise caution through Wednesday midday. Winds will remain offshore and will see brief periods of elevated speeds through the first of next week as a series of weak upper disturbances move across the north Gulf. Rain chances are not anticipated.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Widespread radar estimated rainfall totals of 0.20 to 2.00 inches have fallen overnight. Northwest winds are developing in the wake of this frontal passage, ushering southward a cooler and slightly drier airmass. Winds should remain below 10 knots through Wednesday. Winds will remain from the north and will see periods of elevated speeds through the first of next week as a series of weak upper disturbances move across the region. Rain chances are not anticipated while minimum RH values 40 to 50 percent can be expected daily.

LCH WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.