Area Forecast Discussion

SYNOPSIS

04/251 AM.

Mostly clear skies, dry conditions, a general warming trend and periods of offshore winds are likely through the week. Warmest and windiest conditions likely Friday-Sunday.

SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)

04/251 AM.

A weak trof that brought some showers to the Central Coast last evening is now moving out of the area. A small ridge will follow in its footsteps today. That will transition to dry NW flow Thursday. A sharper ridge will then push into nrn CA on Fri. This will switch the upper level flow to the NE. 1 to 2 mb of offshore flow will develop today and then increase to about 4 mb by Friday.

There will be some low clouds and dense fog across the Central Coast early this morning, but aside from the that skies will be mostly clear through the short term.

The csts and vlys will warm a little today as the offshore flow starts up. Cooler air moving in to the far interior will bring 4 to 8 degrees of cooling to that area. Max temps will end up 3 to 6 degrees blo normal today. Thursday will be warmer as the offshore flow kicks in and hgts rise a little. Look for 4 to 6 degrees of warming across the csts and vlys and 2 or 3 degrees over the rest of the area. Friday will see another 2 to 4 degrees of warming which will bring max temps across the csts/vlys into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

There will not be too much wind today and only weak offshore canyon winds on Thursday. Friday's winds will be stronger and more noticeable but should remain below advisory level.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)

04/251 AM.

Ridging and offshore flow will continue over the weekend. While There will be canyon winds each morning there is only a 30-40 percent chc that they will reach low end advisory criteria. Skies will be mostly clear through the period. Max temps should bump up another 2 to 3 degrees Saturday and then change little on Sunday. Weekend max temps will be in the lower to mid 80s for almost all of the csts/vlys or 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

A high hgt dry upper low forms under the ridge and aporaches and moves over Srn CA during the Mon/Tue time frame. It should have little effect on the sensable weather. The more important factor will be the weakening of the offshore flow. There should be enough to keep the low clouds away, but not enough to prevent an earlier sea breeze. Max temps should cool 2 or 3 degrees each day. Despite this cooling max, max temps will remain at least 5 degrees over normal.

It should then remain dry through Wed the 11th. After that all long range mdls, AI, Deterministic and Ensemble all show an increased chc of rain from the 12th to the 19th.

AVIATION

04/1051Z.

At 0832Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor any inversion.

Moderate confidence in KPRB/KSBP/KSMX with a slow rise to VFR conds likely.

For all other sites, high confidence in VFR TAFs and moderate confidence in winds.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. Any easterly wind component tonight is expected to remain below 6 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE

04/1241 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Saturday, high confidence in combination of SCA level winds and seas across all of the Outer Waters. On Sunday, winds and seas are expected to drop below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. This afternoon through Thursday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For Friday through Sunday, there is a 20% chance of SCA level north to northeast winds, mainly in the overnight and morning hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels, except for SCA winds in the western Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon and evening. For Friday through Saturday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica in the night and morning hours. On Sunday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

Through Thursday, the gusty winds will likely result in choppy, short-period, seas.

LOX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this evening for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST early this morning for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).