Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

-Hot and dry conditions will remain in place through Sunday

-Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across mainly NW Arkansas Sunday night into Monday

-A cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures to the state by Tuesday, continuing through much of the upcoming week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Conditions across the state today will be very similar to what was experienced on Friday. High temperatures in the 97-102 F range and dewpoints in the 50s/60s F will allow afternoon min RH values to fall below the 30th percentile. Sfc winds will remain fairly light, with slightly increased S/SW winds across western portions of the state.

Over the next couple of days the H500 ridge that has been in place across Arkansas for the past few weeks may finally break down and shift south of the region. This long overdue change is due to mid-level troughing expected to move east across the Central Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. At the sfc, a cold front will approach from the NW and move across the area on Monday.

Ahead of the frontal passage, an increase in precip development is expected from late Sunday into Monday, but will remain largely across western and northern portions of the state. Widespread meaningful precipitation is not expected, but some localized relief could be seen. Behind the front cooler temperatures are expected across the state, but temperatures will generally remain near to below seasonal average.

Cooler temperatures and dry conditions will persist through much of next week. Td values are expected to remain in the 50s/60s F next week which will limit any significant fire weather concerns when combined with the slightly cooler daily high temperatures.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the entire the forecast period. High pressure will remain in firm control over the Natural state with light south/southwest winds at terminals. A few gusts up to 15 kts are possible this afternoon and again on Sunday across northern terminals. Some afternoon diurnal CU and high level clouds are possible each afternoon mainly across the western and northern parts of the state.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

LZK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017- 025-033-034-046-047-057.