Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

-Statewide Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect through Tuesday evening.

-A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) is possible for severe weather across far northeastern Arkansas and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) is possible for severe weather across northeastern Arkansas later Tuesday evening ahead of an approaching cold front. The main hazards would be damaging wind gusts and large hail.

-A period of relief from the extreme heat will be present on Wednesday (for parts of the state) and Thursday as a cold front passes through the state on Wednesday.

-Temperatures gradually increase heading into the weekend and beyond.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

TUESDAY (TODAY) through TUESDAY NIGHT (TONIGHT):

The entire state of Arkansas remains under either an Extreme Heat Warning or Heat Advisory through this evening as the portion of an upper lvl ridge remains positioned over Arkansas. Consequently, a region of surface high pressure remains anchored across the Southeastern region of the CONUS. In response, effective advection of Gulf moisture has been observed via Td values forecast to reach into the low to upper 70s on Tuesday. High temperatures across the state will range from the upper 90s into the triple-digit (100-104 degrees) values across most of the state and heat index values will range between 105 and 115+ degrees creating an oppressive day which is forecast to be hotter overall than Monday by a couple of degrees.

Into Tuesday evening, a shortwave trof will be meandering through the flow pattern in the northeastern region of the upper lvl ridge. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across northeastern Arkansas as a cold front approaches the Arkansas/Missouri border from the north. The main hazards with any storm that does manage to become severe on Tuesday evening will be damaging wind gusts and a few instances of large hail will be possible.

Into Tuesday Night and Wednesday Morning, a cold front is progged to move from north to south across the state of Arkansas. POP chances will be limited to the eastern section of the state as the FROPA is expected to be dry overall.

WEDNESDAY through THURSDAY:

The cold front is expected to traverse the state of Arkansas moving into northern Louisiana. Across the southern half of Arkansas, temperatures on Wednesday may remain above normal as compressional heating ahead of the boundary and the progged slowing of the boundary overall as it tracks into southern Arkansas may keep the need for heat products for portions of Arkansas, especially from the I-40 corridor and locations southward.

In the wake of the cold front, a region of surface high pressure will move into the region. Furthermore, surface winds out of the northeast will assist in providing a cooler and drier airmass which will bring temperatures back over this period to values just below or near normal for this time of the year.

FRIDAY through MONDAY:

The upper lvl ridge will build back over the Four Corners region of the CONUS with Arkansas once again being underneath the eastern edge of the ridge. At the sfc, a now stationary front will be placed across the Arkansas/Louisiana border; during this period the boundary is expected to retreat back northward as a warm front. POP chances will return to the forecast, but will be modest given the overwhelming subsidence via the upper lvl ridge over the state, but isolated afternoon convection will be likely through the weekend along with the trend of temperatures increasing overall.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions to prevail through the period. An isolated TS chance remains possible but confidence in coverage over terminals remains low, favoring the central to northern Arkansas terminals over the next several hours. Tomorrow after sunrise winds will prevail out of the northeasterly direction with some gustiness 15-20 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

LZK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>008- 014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113- 121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240- 241-313-340-341.