Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 116 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

-Dry conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period

-A slightly cooler airmass will be noted behind the cold front which moved across the state on Tuesday, but temperatures will remain overall a bit above average compared to normal values for this time of the year

-Into the weekend, a secondary (dry cold front) is forecast to move across Arkansas which will bring the possible need for Frost Advisory products across parts of the state on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

As of early Wednesday morning, rain and isolated thunderstorms are well east of the Mississippi River moving away from the state of Arkansas. In the wake of the FROPA which moved across the state on Tuesday and ushered rain and storms across the state, a region of surface high pressure is bringing a cooler airmass into the state.

The cooler temperatures will be most noted Wednesday and Thursday mornings as low temperatures across the state will fall between the mid 30s to low 50s statewide. However, the cooler temperatures will be tapered somewhat as upper lvl flow over Arkansas will be out of the west-southwest to near westerly. In turn, temperatures overall will be near seasonal averages for this time of the year, but afternoon high temperatures on both Wednesday and Thursday will remain above normal overall.

Into late week, an upper lvl positively-tilted trof will approach the area, but latest guidance has this feature positioned over locations just north of Arkansas. In turn, greater PoP chances will remain north and west of Arkansas going into Friday afternoon and Friday evening.

A secondary cold front will move through Arkansas and usher in a much more noted cooler airmass that will begin to be felt across the state as early as Saturday. Temperatures going into Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday morning may garner the need for Frost Advisory products across portions of the state. Unfortunately, this second forecasted cold front will be lacking of PoP chances across the Natural State.

The main takeaway will be dry conditions returning to the state over the forecast period with a second, dry cold front which will lower morning low temperatures to values that may garner the issuance of frost products. However, high temperatures will rebound to afternoon values going above average for this time of the year compared to normals for this time of the year, especially into the early portion of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 436 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Expect lowered CIGS and reduced VSBY to impact several terminals through the mid-morning on Wednesday across the state lowering flight category to MVFR and at times as low as IFR. All sites are anticipated to return to VFR flight category by midday as the lower cloud cover moves east into Mississippi and mixing causes areas of patchy fog to become obsolete. Surface wind gusts in excess of near 20 knots can be expected at the terminal of KHRO through early afternoon before surface winds lose their gusting condition and begin to lax overall.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

LZK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.