Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 601 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Highs remain above normal through Monday, but trend cooler beginning Tuesday.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region through the weekend. A few storms will be capable of producing localized strong downburst winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding.

- Storm chances continue into the early to middle part of next week. Flash flooding will continue to be a hazard.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Little change to the forecast for today and into tonight from the previous package. Satellite imagery and mesoanalysis continue to indicate southwesterly flow over the western half of the region with a ridge parked over the Arklatex. Surface dew points remain 60-65+ across the CWA and increasing moisture aloft along with a shortwave moving in from the west will aid in developing scattered showers and storms across the higher terrain and Big Bend with coverage expanding later this afternoon and evening into the Permian Basin. Convection decays and move out of the region late tonight, but with the bulk of the moisture remaining in the area, rain chances continue on Sunday with a focus across the eastern third of the area. A few storms today will be strong to severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall as the main threats. Highs tomorrow will be about the same as today with most locations reaching into the 90s.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Heading into Sunday evening, showers and storms from earlier in the day begin to decay and move to the east. During the day on Monday, a cold front approaches from the north, but with the onset of daytime heating, it will slow and stall between Midland and Lubbock. Rain chances increase along and behind the front Monday evening. The front pushes south into the region on Tuesday and rain chances spread nearly areawide with the highest chances (50-70%) across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. Lower chances (20-40%) continue south of the I-10 corridor.

Each day from Tuesday through Thursday will be similar with rounds of rain developing each of those afternoons mainly across the northern half of the CWA. Low confidence on how much will fall over the course of the week and will depend on where the most favorable environment will be each day. Medium range continues to put the focus over southeast New Mexico and into central New Mexico. Highs during this time drop into the 80s to low 90s for most, which is an improvement from the late season heat, but will still be above normal for the end of September. Overnight lows settle into the 60s partly because of a cooler airmass and northeasterly flow at the surface as well as increased cloud cover and rain chances.

-Stickney

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Aside from areas of direct convection, VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light and variable flow. Convection is possible most terminals over the next 6-8 hours. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field late morning/early afternoon Sunday, w/bases ~ 6-9 kft AGL. Convection is possible Sunday afternoon West Texas terminals, but chances are too low for a mention attm except for KFST.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MAF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.