Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 101 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Mild daytime temperatures (60s to 70s F highs) and chilly nighttime temperatures (40s to 50s F lows) this week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 101 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Seasonal temperatures continue in the short term. Southerly winds return today but are only recirculating cool air around surface high pressure east of the area keeping temps unchanged. An upper trough moving through the western U.S. pushes a cold front through the area on Thursday. Colder air behind the front will be lagging to the north so highs Thursday will remain unchanged from today.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 101 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Typical for an El Nino year, there is a split jet with the southern stream sitting across the U.S./Mexico border this week. Thus even though the air behind the cold front is unusually cold, there will be no ridge moving in to increase temperatures. Temps behind the front will be below normal and a slow increase through next week will only get the back to normal by next Wednesday.

It will be mostly dry next week, with the exception of this weekend when a second low moves into the central plains. Lift from the low and an associated jet max over West Texas will create scattered showers to form mainly in the Big Bend though a few strays could reach as far north as the I-20 corridor. Little rainfall is expected from this activity before drier air returns next week.

Hennig

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Sfc winds will be light/variable, but will generally veer to SE Wednesday. A few high clouds are expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MAF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.