Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 541 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- Rain chances persist in the forecast through this evening in/ near the higher terrain. Localized flash flooding remains of concern in the event of heavy rainfall.

- Hot and mostly dry weather returns Wednesday onward, with increasing coverage of triple digit highs. Persistent heat will present an increased risk of heat-related illnesses.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Upper-level ridging begins to build back into west Texas and southeast New Mexico today. This ridge will be the dominate influence on our weather for at least the next several days. Highs tick up today relative to yesterday. Most locations top out in the mid-to-upper 90s, with some 100s along the Rio Grande. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are once again expected to develop in the western higher terrain this afternoon and evening (20-40% chances). Similar to yesterday, the biggest concern with storms that develop would be heavy rain leading to some flash flooding. Cloud cover and rain chances keep highs in the 80s and low 90s for locations in and around the higher terrain today. Overnight lows in the low-to-mid 70s will be commonplace (low-to-mid 60s in the mountains). Temperatures tick up again Wednesday as the ridge continues to build. Highs near or just above 100 degrees are forecast across the area Wednesday (low 90s in/near the higher terrain). In fact, KMAF has about a 75% chances of hitting 100 degrees tomorrow, which would be the first time since July 4th. Overnight lows Wednesday likewise trend up a couple of degrees relative to tonight's. Subsidence from the ridge largely limits rain chances tomorrow, though a couple of isolated showers and storms may still develop in the higher terrain thanks to upslope flow.

Sprang

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

An expansive upper-level ridge will dominate the region, sustaining hot and primarily dry conditions throughout the forecast period. By Friday, the ridge axis will shift briefly toward the Four Corners, allowing weak northerly flow aloft to potentially steer mountain- initiated convection from New Mexico into the northwestern portion of the area. Otherwise, dry conditions will persist for the next seven days.

Widespread triple-digit temperatures are expected, with most areas reaching 100-105F throughout the week and into the weekend. Extreme heat, with peak temperatures of 110-115F, will be concentrated across the Big Bend and Rio Grande Valley during this time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 541 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions will continue next 24 hours in light return flow. Convective chances are minimal, but a widespread cu field is expected late morning/early afternoon Wednesday, w/bases ~ 5-10 kft AGL.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MAF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.