Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Very hot temperatures and mainly dry weather is expected to continue this weekend with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 90s to around 100 degrees.

- A weak cold front will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms early next week. Widespread significant rainfall is not expected.

- A slight cooling trend is expected by Wednesday, bringing temperatures down from near-record values to above-normal for late September.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A 594 dm upper-level ridge axis is centered over portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. This upper-level ridge continues to bring a continuation of very hot temperatures and persistent dry weather to the Mid-South. Late morning temperatures range from the upper 80s to lower 90s with surface dewpoints in the 60s.

The aforementioned upper-level ridge will continue to bring very hot temperatures and dry weather to the area through the remainder of the weekend. Heat index values over the past couple of days have struggled to reach 105 degrees as drier air has mixed down to the surface with afternoon temperatures rising into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Confidence remains low for sites reaching Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon. Consequently, the current Heat Advisory may be cancelled early rather than extending into Sunday if current short-term trends persist.

Mid to long range model ensemble and deterministic solutions indicate the upper-level ridge will weaken slightly by early next week. Shower and thunderstorm chances are anticipated to return to some locations Monday night into Tuesday as a weak cold front drops into the region. This front is not expected to bring any appreciable rainfall with LREF probabilities of rainfall greater than one-tenth of an inch remaining at or below 10 percent. Temperatures behind this front are still anticipated to remain above normal with LREF/NBM probabilities of temperatures 90 degrees or warmer dropping down to 30 percent for mid to late next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Persistent high pressure will keep VFR conditions at all terminals through the period with mainly afternoon cumulus development. Expect light winds throughout the day, dropping to near calm overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A strong upper level ridge centered over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley will continue to bring hot and mainly dry weather through the weekend. 20 foot winds are expected to remain light under 10 kts while minimum relative humidity values this afternoon and Sunday will drop to around 30 percent mitigating critical fire weather conditions. Fog potential remains low across the region, restricted mainly to brief, patchy morning fog along low-lying river basins.

MEG WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028- 035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092.