Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1136 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move across the Mid-South overnight, with a low risk for localized heavy rainfall. A very low chance for damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado remains.

- Dry conditions will return by midday on Wednesday, with high temperatures generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

- A reinforcing cold front will arrive late this week with much cooler air filtering in by the weekend. Highs are anticipated to be in the 60s with lows in the upper 30s to 40s.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1136 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Showers continue to push across the Mid-South ahead of a frontal boundary, with thunderstorm activity remaining south of the area. There is still some question of if a narrow corridor of instability can resurge into northeast Mississippi and the TN River overnight, although that window of opportunity continues to close. Latest mesoscale analysis does show 500 J/kg of SBCAPE just to our south, but storms to our south have not utilized this throughout the evening. If we were able to get some instability, there is still ample shear present with a strengthening LLJ across the region. However, current trends are not in favor of this mainly stratiform precipitation developing well ahead of the frontal boundary. If the atmosphere is able to somehow tap into any instability, damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado still could not be ruled out into the overnight period. However, the main concern at this point does appear to be periods of heavy rainfall, that could lead to some flooding in flood-prone areas. PWAT values are currently in the 1.6" to 1.8" range across the area, so this will be something to watch through the rest of the overnight period.

Any lingering showers and thunderstorms will exit the area by midday on Wednesday, with a dry forecast building back into the region for the foreseeable future thereafter. While the aforementioned frontal boundary will aid to knock temperatures back down a few degrees, temperatures will rebound slightly into Thursday with southwesterly flow. High temperatures on Thursday will be a few degrees above normal, spanning the 70s across the area. By Thursday evening into Friday, an upper-level trough will swing through the region with a reinforcing frontal boundary returning northwesterly flow to the Mid-South. This will allow temperatures to fall to near normal to end the week and below normal into the weekend. Friday's highs will remain closer to normal in the 60s to low 70s, but by Saturday high temperatures will fall into the 50s to low 60s. These below normal temperatures will likely persist into Monday, with overnight lows in the 30s to 40s each night. Mid-range guidance does show a slight warm up near the end of the current forecast period, with the CPC 6 to 10 day temperature outlook favoring above-normal temperatures.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

MVFR CIGs are present across the region and will prevail through this morning at all terminals except JBR. Rain has made its way east of the Mississippi River and will continue to bring MVFR impacts to MEM/MKL/TUP through the first 6 hours of the period. CIGs may attempt to drop into IFR at MEM/MKL/TUP, but REFS probabilities remain at or below 30%. So, have excluded this from the current TAFs. Gradual recovery from MVFR CIGs will occur through Wednesday, reaching VFR at most sites by the mid afternoon with a northwesterly wind shift through the end of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1136 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Recent rainfall will aid in keeping fire danger concerns at bay for the foreseeable future coupled with minimum relative humidity values remaining above 40% into the upcoming weekend. 20 ft winds will generally remain less than 10 mph Thursday onward.

MEG WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None.