Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 315 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Additional rainfall could result in localized flooding across portions of the area that have seen repeated rounds of heavy rainfall over the last several days. Highest chances during the morning hours over the Atlantic coast.

- Minor coastal flooding expected during times of high tide.

- Dangerous beach conditions are expected across the Atlantic coast through today.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 315 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Overnight period has remained busy radar-wise with persisting training of cells around northern Broward county. Flash Flood warnings/Flood Advisories have been necessary for those areas, with some potential for additional showers through sunrise.

Ensembles and global models show developing high pressure across the SE U.S. coast slowly moving closer to the area. This will decrease pressure gradients across Soflo and allow for coastal winds to gradually decrease starting today. Drier air is also expected to continue to filter into the region, which will also help in the downward trend of active weather. In terms of POPs, latest NBM keeps highest values through the mid morning hours, mainly over the immediate Atlantic coastal areas of SoFlo where up to 80% for that time period. WPC is also keeping a Marginal Risk for Excesssive Rainfall (level 1 of 4), mainly for the morning hours.

The high pressure will continue to inch closer to the area on Thursday, with a more pronounced mid-lvl layer of drier air establishing across SoFlo. This will result in POPs dropping into single digits by the afternoon hours, and widespread light to moderate NE flow. Meanwhile, a sfc dry front will begin moving across the state, with reinforcing high pressure in its wake. Also, coastal hazards continue as high astronomical tides combine with persistent onshore winds to keep threat of coastal flooding in place today.

Afternoon temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s each day, with slightly warmer values on Thursday with more hours of sunshine.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 315 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Long range models depict reinforcing high pressure and drier conditions prevailing across the area during the weekend in the wake of a dry FROPA. Mainly single-digit POPs are expected each day through Sunday.

For early next week, models depict a potential mid-lvl trough moving across the area and bringing increasing chances of showers for the late Monday-Tuesday timeframe. But even so, max POPs seem to remain in the 20-30% range.

The latest trend in guidance is also to bring a more pronounced temperature response as overall northerly flow develops in the wake of the FROPA. Afternoon highs should remain in the upper 70s to low 80s by early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 200 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Winds will remain generally NE in the 10-12kt range through around 00Z, then L/V tonight. Some brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vis periods are still possible this morning over the Atlantic terminals with coastal showers and thunderstorms. Mainly VFR conditions should prevail later in the day.

MARINE

Issued at 315 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Marine conditions will continue to gradually improve across the Atlantic waters as winds subside, and a more gentle NE flow develops. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across all Atlantic waters, with highest chances during the morning hours, while mainly isolated showers prevail over the Gulf waters today. Significantly drier conditions will prevail during the weekend in the wake of a dry frontal passage across the region.

BEACHES

Issued at 315 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

The onshore flow will keep a High Risk for rip currents across Atlantic beaches for one more day, then conditions begin improving tonight. Higher than usual tides will also continue to keep elevated water levels near the coast today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MFL WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ172- 173.

AM...None. GM...None.