Area Forecast Discussion

AVIATION (06Z TAFs)

Residual low level moisture is producing areas of mainly MVFR, and patchy IFR in southern Siskiyou County and east of the Cascades. This stratus will expand in coverage through sunrise. Meantime, patchy IFR is also developing in the Umpqua Valley. LIFR is expected in southwest Oregon valleys, including Medford, Grants Pass and Roseburg, from around 09Z late tonight through 18Z Wednesday morning. These valley conditions will improve to VFR for the late morning and afternoon. The next cold front will reach the coast late Wednesday afternoon with light rain and patches of MVFR developing. Light rain and patchy MVFR will then extend into Douglas County, including Roseburg, during Wednesday evening.

MARINE...Updated 730 PM PST Tuesday, November 3, 2026

Long period west-northwest swell combined with a shorter period southwest swell will maintain elevated steep seas under light winds through tonight. Conditions briefly improve on Wednesday, though winds will turn southerly and increase some in the afternoon. Winds are likely to remain below advisory, but several long period swell trains will pass through the waters over the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Steep swell dominated seas return to all areas by late Wednesday night and are likely to persist through the weekend. Seas are forecast to reach a peak Friday night into Saturday at around 12 to 15 feet at 15 to 16 seconds.

PREV DISCUSSION

/Issued 456 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Overall, this is a low impact forecast over the next 7 days

* Seasonable temperatures around normal for this time of year expected through much of the week edging above normal second half of the week

* Light rainfall today and tomorrow but amounts are generally under a tenth of an inch

* Rainfall amounts edge slightly higher Sat/Sat night with chances mainly along/near the coast and the Umpqua Basin

* A potentially more active pattern may unfold middle parts of next week bringing higher rainfall, snowfall, and strong winds

DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery depicts a low pressure center moving over northern parts of California. This will bring light rainfall to southern portions of the forecast area, including northern California. Not expecting any noteworthy impacts from this system. The southerly flow is bringing strong wind speeds over parts of northern California this afternoon, especially the Shasta Valley where Weed has shown observations of 20-25 mph gusting to around 30-35 mph. This low pressure system moves out of the region tonight. H5 heights increase in its wake, but the base of a trough extending down from the Gulf of Alaska will bring another chance for light rainfall late Wednesday afternoon and evening. This chacnes are mainly for the coast and areas north of the Umpqua divide. The probability of 0.10" or greater of rainfall is only around 40%-50% for any given 6-hr time period Wed/Wed night. Again, not expecting much rainfall this week with any of these systems. On Saturday, probabilities are generally the same or slightly less, but some ensembles are showing higher amounts along/near the coast upwards near half an inch. In otherwords, there is more uncertatinty for Saturday rainfall amounts, but the general trend is showing those higher amounts may be an outlier.

Temperatures the second half of the week are trending upward, with most locations indicating above normal temperautres, potentially around 70 for many westside areas on Saturday.

Looking ahead, there is the potential for more impactful weather around Veteran's Day which could bring strong winds, increased rainfall amounts, and potential snowfall for higher elevations above 4500 ft. This is of course very far in the future, and a lot can change, but at this time we are watching this timeframe for potential impactful weather. Signs are also pointing at a potential weak atmospheric river event middle of next week. It should be noted this is not a slam dunk scenario, and uncertainty remains given how far out in the future this system is.

-Guerrero

MFR WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.