Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain chances continued to trend down today and Sunday. Thunder chances decreased Wednesday onwards.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry this weekend, then periods of unsettled weather returns early next week.

2) Increased marine impacts mid week as high waves and potentially strong winds impact the OBX and adjacent waters and sounds.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front is sitting well offshore, with deep layer nerly flow settling into the majority of ENC. Have continued decreasing PoPs for the remainder of today and for tomorrow. Best moisture will reside acrs the far swrn zones today, where this area has a 20-30% chance of seeing some showers. High pres in control for Sunday means a drier fcst on tap. Next appreciable chance of rain arrives Mon and Tue as yet another frontal boundary pushes southward.

Key Message 2...Next week, a strong high pressure system becomes anchored acrs New England and ern Canada, while at the same time low pres develops off the Mid Atlantic coast, tightening the pressure gradient along the mid- atlantic and northeast. This will likely usher in stronger NE winds to the region. Given it is 4-6 days out, there is still much uncertainty, as both wind speed and direction is dependent on the placement, strength, and timing of the low. For now there is good model consensus on at least higher waves 8+ ft at 8+ sec along the Outer Banks mid- next week. This will be worth keeping an eye on, as a long fetch of strong winds could bring higher wave energy towards vulnerable portions of the Outer Banks. It is too soon to determine specifics at this point and trends will have to be monitored in the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Dry forecast for terminals through the period. VFR conditions prevail through the overnight period, with probabilities of IFR conditions or worse at 20% or less in the overnight hours. Did retain MIFG mention at OAJ which has a higher tendency towards lower visibilities. Sunday should be dry and return to VFR with the sea breeze pinned to the coast as the cold front still sits to our south.

Outlook (Sun through Wed): Fog potential exists Sunday night into Monday morning. Another cold front drops in Mon and Tue with a return to unsettled weather and rain chances. This and the potential cold air damming pattern develops next week with a risk of prolonged sub- VFR conditions and breezy NE winds.

MARINE

Behind the cold front that has moved through, NE winds of 15+ kt developed today with gusts aoa 20 kt peaking this afternoon to early evening. SCA conditions are not expected however and seas will top out at 3-5 ft this evening for much of the area, with some 6 footers possible along the Gulf Stream 20+ miles offshore. As NE winds decrease Sunday PM, seas lessen to 2-4 ft.

Outlook (Sun through Wed):Winds become nwerly behind yet another fropa on Monday, though speeds remain generally in the 5-15 kt range Sun into Mon with seas 2-4 ft. NE Winds and seas begin to build Tuesday PM or Wed as pressure gradient tightens as we are sandwiched between a strong high to our north and a non- tropical low developing offshore. There is the potential for nerly gales by Wed though still lots of uncertainty on how close and strong the offshore low pres becomes. What is more certain is a long duration of dangerous seas of 8-10+ ft developing by mid week.

MHX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...None.