Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Off and on periods of rain along with a few isolated storms continue through Thursday.

- Drier and cooler conditions Friday into Saturday.

SHORT TERM

Issued 1000 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Tonight through Thursday night:

Tonight expect on and off rain showers ahead of a dry slot later tonight. Mid to upper level moisture will drop out and thus lead to a period of drier conditions. This may not completely eliminate precip potential as there will be some moisture in the lower levels but drizzle at best would be the most likely scenario. This dry slot will likely keep Wednesday largely dry outside of perhaps the far NW portions of the CWA which may maintain a bit more mid to upper level moisture and thus be capable of sustaining some precip in the area. Elsewhere perhaps a few pockets of light showers here or there could be expected but in general should remain dry through much of Wednesday night before the backside of the surface low starts to swing through.

As the backside of the low swings through that will bring in the better precip chances back across the region late Wednesday night through Thursday as moisture fills back in in the mid to upper levels. PVA and TROWAL activity will provide the main forcing though forcing will not be overly strong and thus light precip is most likely. Precip will likely finally push out Thursday night as the surface low moves toward the eastern Great Lakes with higher pressure nudging in behind it. It is worth noting that with upper level closed lows, models are often to quick to push them out so it would not shock me to see some precip chances linger into Friday.

Otherwise, while I cannot rule out a rumble of thunder the setup is not favorable for much lightning with very limited instability and a largely stratiform precip pattern expected when precip pushes through. The best chance may be in the dry slot Wednesday afternoon/evening for isolated storm activity.

Kuroski

LONG TERM

Issued 1045 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Friday through Tuesday:

The upper low over Lower Michigan Friday morning should steadily exit to Lake Erie by Saturday morning. Brisk northerly winds and a high amount of cloud cover will linger through much of the day Friday, especially closer to Lake Michigan. Highs are expected to be just below 50. With clearing skies Friday night as high pressure briefly takes hold, and 850mb temps dropping to around negative 4C, our low temps are expected to drop into the upper 20s inland from Lake Michigan. Since we are well past our climatological freeze dates, we will not be issuing any frost/freeze headlines.

There is another potent mid level shortwave trough in line to cross the Upper Midwest on Saturday. This should dive south through IA and IL (or further southwest) and any winds or precip associated with it will miss southern WI. Highs here Sat will be around 50 with light winds. Skies will trend toward sunny.

Sunday will bring a steady westerly breeze as weak high pressure moves across the Plains. Highs will inch warmer into the mid 50s under mostly sunny skies.

A dry low pressure system will track across Ontario Monday. This will bring breezy southwest winds to southern WI, but also help to warm us back into the upper 50s to around 60.

A mid level shortwave trough is expected to track across the Upper Great Lakes sometime around Tuesday. It looks like the only impact this might have on southern WI is the potential for brisk northerly winds in its wake on Wednesday. Temperatures should remain mild (warmer than normal) for most of the week.

Cronce

AVIATION

Issued 1000 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Pockets of VFR conditions continue across parts of eastern WI but as precip moves in should be expected to lower to MVFR with some MVFR VSBYS possible in spots with the rain. To the far west, MVFR CIGS continue with less VSBY concerns given the likely drier conditions as most of the precip will stay to the east. Drier conditions to expand later tonight through much of the TAF period with MVFR CIGS expected to persist as well. Rain will return late Wednesday night through Thursday.

Kuroski

MARINE

Issued 1000 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Low pressure around 29.5 inches sits over MN/IA this evening. This will drive gusty southerly winds across the lake through Wednesday. Gales have ended across the lake though gusty winds to 30 kts will remain possible through Wednesday night as the low pivots north to the Upper Peninsula and deepens to 29.4 inches. This system will weaken somewhat as it tracks east and gradually pushes out of the area Thursday night into Friday. On the backside of this low pressure system expected a period of breezy north winds. Perhaps a few gales will be possible, particularly on the northern side of the Lake earlier on and then becoming likely during the day Friday. Gale Warning may be needed for Friday.

Otherwise, expect periods of rain and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will accompany low pressure tonight through midweek. In addition the Small Craft Advisory has been extended until noon Thursday due to breezy SW winds continuing into Thursday ahead of the frontal passage.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 12 PM Thursday.