Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 121 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area beaches through this afternoon.

- A cold front will move into the area today, with a few periods of rainshowers and thunderstorms across the area. The threat for severe thunderstorms is low at this time.

- A much cooler and drier airmass moves into the area this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A cold front will continue to slowly move east tonight into Wednesday. The front will stall across northwest portions of the area Wednesday into Thursday as it becomes parallel to the mid and upper flow. Scattered light rain showers will continue overnight with patchy dense fog developing across portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama due to very moist conditions. A dense fog advisory has been issued for parts of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. The highest rain chances will likely be Wednesday afternoon as the frontal boundary moves into the area, mainly northwest of I-65. No severe thunderstorms are expected. However, forcing rapidly weakens along the front as the main energy pulls well off the north. As a result, any showers and thunderstorms that advance into the area will weaken as they move east. The front finally moves east Thursday night into Friday as a stronger shortwave moves east across the Tennessee Valley. A few showers will be possible on Friday as the front pushes east, however most areas will remain dry. Another fast moving system may approach the area late in the weekend into early next week. However, there is a large spread in the models this far out and will maintain a dry forecast for now.

A much cooler and drier airmass moves into the area for the weekend into early next week High temps on Sunday will be in the mid and upper 60s with upper 60s to around 70 Monday and Tuesday Lows in the mid and upper 30s across far northern areas will be possible Saturday night through Tuesday night. /13

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings are currently in place across much of the local area. Throughout the overnight hours, ceilings are expected to lower even further, possibly down to LIFR in spots. In addition, patchy to areas of fog, some of which could be dense, is expected to develop mainly for areas west of the Tombigbee River. Any fog that does develop will dissipate a little after sunrise, along with ceilings lifting back up to MVFR and eventually VFR by the afternoon hours. By the afternoon, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms should begin pushing into our southeast Mississippi counties. This line will slowly push eastwards throughout the remainder of the day and into the evening hours before weakening. Expect brief reductions in visibility and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Ceilings should start to lower back down to MVFR by the mid to late evening hours. Light southeasterly winds this morning will turn more southwesterly and increase to around 5-10 knots by the afternoon hours. /96

MARINE

Issued at 121 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Onshore winds continue to weaken today, becoming a light and variable flow Thursday. A light to moderate offshore flow develops Friday, becoming a moderate offshore flow over the weekend in the wake of a cold front. Seas 2 to 4 feet today continue to decrease to 1 to 2 feet by Thursday. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MOB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ261-263- 265.

High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MSZ075-076- 078-079.

GM...None.