Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures with mostly cloudy skies persist through the weekend

- Drier conditions return next week with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

- Next chances for rain arrive late in the forecast period, on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

REMAINDER OF TODAY AND SUNDAY

Damp, cool, and cloudy conditions for your Saturday. Areas of mist/drizzle will persist through the afternoon as we remain blanketed under thick stratus clouds. As a result, temperatures will not increase that much from what they are right now, hovering around 60 degrees. On Sunday, mostly cloudy skies will persist through the day. High temperatures will trend a few degrees warmer than Saturday, topping out in the low to middle 60s.

NEXT WEEK

On Monday, surface high pressure over Canada will promote a drying trend with moisture values decreasing steadily. DP temps will fall back into the 40s across most of the forecast area. 50 degree DP temps remain in place across southern MN where isolated to scattered rain showers will be possible. Crisp and cool nights can be expected starting Monday night/Tuesday morning and Tuesday night/Wednesday with forecast low temperatures dropping into the 40s areawide, with a few areas dropping into the upper 30s. Otherwise, quiet and fair weather conditions persist through Wednesday with afternoon high temperatures in the middle to upper 60s.

By Thursday, the next upper level wave of energy and associated low level moisture will move west to east across the region. Global deterministic models and their respected ensemble suites are in fairly good agreement regarding timing and placement of this system. That said, there's still a degree of uncertainty regarding how far east the associated rain showers will progress. Ahead of this system, the aforementioned dry air that will be in place may inhibit rain chances the further east you go across the CWA.

By next weekend, high pressure aloft moves in across the region with high temperatures increasing back into the low 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

It remains a dreary forecast with mostly MVFR/IFR conditions across the area. Cigs are trending up from earlier today, though some locations across southern MN are still seeing cloud bases below 500 ft. Cigs will continue to improve tonight, with some pockets of VFR possible after midnight. Clouds build back in mid-morning, and many sites will flirt between that MVFR/VFR threshold as cigs gradually rise throughout the day.

Winds remain out of the northeast, becoming gusty tomorrow afternoon at times.

KMSP...There is low confidence on how long of a period of VFR cigs we could see overnight into tomorrow morning. Most likely window for the lower clouds to scatter out is between 09 to 16z, but that could shrink or grow depending on how quickly our boundary layer moisture decreases.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10G15 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.