Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures with mostly cloudy skies persist through the weekend

- Drier conditions return next week with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

- Next chances for rain arrive late in the forecast period, on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

REMAINDER OF TODAY AND SUNDAY

Damp, cool, and cloudy conditions for your Saturday. Areas of mist/drizzle will persist through the afternoon as we remain blanketed under thick stratus clouds. As a result, temperatures will not increase that much from what they are right now, hovering around 60 degrees. On Sunday, mostly cloudy skies will persist through the day. High temperatures will trend a few degrees warmer than Saturday, topping out in the low to middle 60s.

NEXT WEEK

On Monday, surface high pressure over Canada will promote a drying trend with moisture values decreasing steadily. DP temps will fall back into the 40s across most of the forecast area. 50 degree DP temps remain in place across southern MN where isolated to scattered rain showers will be possible. Crisp and cool nights can be expected starting Monday night/Tuesday morning and Tuesday night/Wednesday with forecast low temperatures dropping into the 40s areawide, with a few areas dropping into the upper 30s. Otherwise, quiet and fair weather conditions persist through Wednesday with afternoon high temperatures in the middle to upper 60s.

By Thursday, the next upper level wave of energy and associated low level moisture will move west to east across the region. Global deterministic models and their respected ensemble suites are in fairly good agreement regarding timing and placement of this system. That said, there's still a degree of uncertainty regarding how far east the associated rain showers will progress. Ahead of this system, the aforementioned dry air that will be in place may inhibit rain chances the further east you go across the CWA.

By next weekend, high pressure aloft moves in across the region with high temperatures increasing back into the low 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas of drizzle will continue to persist across western WI this afternoon, such that visibilities could be reduced to 2sm. Otherwise, generally IFR is expected into this evening as cigs remain below 1000 feet. However, a boundary will sag south into central MN this evening into tonight, which will scour out some moisture. This will lead to an improvement of conditions to MVFR/low-end VFR, mainly across central MN and tonight into early Sunday morning as clouds rise and decrease in coverage. Farther south, IFR will persist through most of the night before slowly improving to MVFR. A broken stratocumulus field is expected to develop after 13z Sunday which will return all terminals to MVFR through the end of the period. Northeasterly winds will remain near 10 knots through this afternoon, then slow to near 5 knots this evening while becoming north- northeasterly. Winds turn back to northeasterly near 10 knots during Sunday morning.

KMSP...Brief periods of IFR are possible through 22z but otherwise low-end MVFR will persist until early Sunday morning. Expecting sagging boundary to the north to scour out some moisture and slightly lift/decrease cloud cover early Sunday morning. However, should still remain MVFR through 19z before cigs lift to VFR. Northeasterly wind gusts will approach 20 knots during Sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10G15 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.