Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1230 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Seasonal to slightly below normal temps through midweek; warming trend and above normal temps late week into weekend

- Coastal flooding Wednesday through Sunday

- Hazardous beach conditions Thursday through Saturday

SHORT TERM

Issued at 1230 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026 (Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery reveals a faint surface low around 50 miles off of Point Reyes, feeding a weak band of showers that are moving through the SF Bay Area and Monterey Bay region. Slight chances of showers are possible before sunrise, but should continue to dissipate with the surface front becoming less and less defined. The skies should clear by the late morning and early afternoon hours.

A look at the wider synoptic pattern reveals an upper level low moving through the Great Basin, with a slight ridge behind it helping to keep the large-scale flow from the northwest and keeping fire weather concerns at bay. Morning lows range from the lower to middle 40s in the interior valleys into the upper 40s to lower 50s along the coast and into the SF Bay Area and Monterey Bay regions. Temperatures should be quite a bit warmer, especially in the North Bay where temperatures in the inland valleys should jump from the upper 50s to lower 60s yesterday to the upper 60s today. Upper 60s to lower 70s are also expected across the inland valleys into the Central Coast, while Bayshore locations hover in the middle to upper 60s and the coasts remain in the lower 60s. A breezy onshore push should develop in the afternoon and evening hours with gusts of 20 to 30 mph along the coast and through favored gaps and passes.

A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion surge will cause coastal flooding concerns across Bayshore areas across the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.0 ft above normal (6.8 ft MLLW) at 8:00 AM today, including 1.2 ft of surge residual. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.

LONG TERM

Issued at 1230 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday)

A warming trend is expected through the next few days with an upper level trough building into the West Coast. Temperatures are expected to peak over the upcoming weekend, with the inland valleys expected to warm to the middle 70s to the lower 80s and coastal areas hovering in the 60s.

Into the early part of next week, the temperatures will cool as the ridge axis moves off to the east and a trough comes close to the Pacific Northwest. Within the seven-day outlook, any rain chances will be deflected far to our north in the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Beyond the seven-day outlook, the rain chances start to migrate southward towards central California, but at that point, any specific details are heavily uncertain.

Coastal flooding concerns will continue through Monday with the combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion surge resulting in minor flooding in Bayshore locations along the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 8:35 AM Thursday 11/5, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 9:08 AM Friday 11/6, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, and 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9. These predictions include up to 1.2 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long- period swell Thursday through Saturday will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 853 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

With the upper low moving through, low clouds and showers /VFR-MVFR/ will linger through the evening. Any clearing tonight will result in radiative cooling and patchy fog /IFR-LIFR/ tonight and Wednesday morning. Dry Wednesday with VFR.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Lingering showers this evening otherwise dry later tonight and Wednesday. Wind easterly 5 to 8 knots mid to late evening then northwest to west 10 to 14 knots Wednesday morning and afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR with low clouds and lingering showers this evening otherwise dry later tonight and Wednesday. Winds light and variable tonight and Wednesday morning, then onshore 5 to 10 knots Wednesday afternoon and early evening.

MARINE

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 825 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

Low pressure will move east of the area tonight and become replaced by a high pressure system through the week. Winds will become northerly Wednesday. Moderate to rough seas prevail through the weekend. Dry conditions expected Wednesday into early next week.

MTR WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 1 PM PST Monday for CAZ006-506-508-530.

Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Saturday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.