Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rainfall forecasts continue to lower compared to previous forecast and flash flooding is no longer expected Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread rain Sunday into Sunday night.

2) Breezy and cool conditions likely mid to late next week, with periods of unsettled weather possible. Potential for minor to moderate coastal flood and shoreline impacts mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Frontal system with a weak wave of low pressure for the close of this weekend will eventually settle to the south of the region into early next week. Potential for heavy rain Sunday into Sunday night has significantly lowered as the system is more progressive and less unstable/more stratiform in nature. In fact, the Weather Prediction Center has taken the area out of the marginal risk of excessive rainfall for Sunday. Brief downpours are still possible with PWATs still near 2 inches and dew points rising into the lower to middle 60s. Although there is no longer mention of thunder in the forecast, a thunderstorm somewhere within the forecast area is still possible. But, SBCAPE values are well below 100 J/kg, with a fair amount of CIN. Some elevated CAPE values in model soundings do show values close to 100 J/kg. Average rainfall amounts tonight through daybreak Monday range from 1/3 to 1 inch.

The bulk of the rain looks to taper off by early Monday but chances of rain remain Tuesday into midweek with cold front remaining south of the region and high pressure well to the north of the region.

.KEY MESSAGE 2... Potential for a period of unsettled weather mainly Wednesday night through Friday night between strong Canadian high pressure anchoring across SE Canada and northern New England while a series of lows that are expected to develop over the SE US coast deepen and head northeast during this time frame. These lows are in response to a closed upper low currently over the PAC NW slowly drifting across the US to the Great Lakes and then east coast during the mid to late week. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty at this time, but the current track takes the low on a slow track northward from Wednesday through Friday, staying east of the region.

Below normal temperatures are expected from mid to late week thanks to cool, Canadian high pressure, mostly cloudy skies, and persistent breezy east to northeast flow (gusts 30-40 mph) during this time frame.

If persistent and long fetch E/NE gales materialize during the mid to late week period, ahead of the approaching full moon next weekend, this will bring potential for minor to moderate coastal flood and shoreline impacts during time of high tide.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

High pressure slowly works offshore through tonight, while a warm front approaches from the southwest. The warm front becomes nearly stationary across the area on Sunday before a cold frontal passage Sunday night.

VFR through much of tonight. Conditions will lower to MVFR/IFR late tonight into Sunday morning with a steady rain overspreading the area during the morning hours and continuing through the day.

E/SE winds this evening less than 10kt will become predominantly SE late tonight. Winds will increase Sunday morning to 10-15kt G15- 20kt, highest at the coastal terminals, then veer to a more southerly direction in the afternoon.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Onset of MVFR could be off by a few hours. Forecast TEMPO IFR might not occur on Sunday, but there is also the possibility that IFR prevails during the forecast TEMPO period on Sunday.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Monday THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday Night: Rain ends from NW to SE with the Lower Hudson Valley terminals possibly going VFR overnight. Southeasterly wind gusts near 15-20 kt in the afternoon/early evening, especially at the coastal terminals.

Monday: Becoming VFR with a low chance for showers at the coast. N-NE wind gusts near 20 kt.

Tuesday through Thursday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers. NE wind gusts 20-25 kt Tuesday and 20 to 30 kt Wednesday and Thursday, highest at the coastal terminals.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

High pressure builds in through tonight. The high shifts east over southeastern Canada with a frontal system moving in Sunday into Sunday night. Sub SCA conditions are expected through this time frame.

A prolonged period SCA conditions are expected Tuesday through Tuesday night. A prolonged period of gales is possible from late Tuesday night on the ocean waters through the end of the week as a coastal low impacts the waters. Gales are possible on all other non- ocean waters (except the harbor) from Thursday onward. The harbor is likely to remain below gales (SCA likely) through this time frame. This will lead waves to build on the ocean 12-15+ ft and 4-6+ ft on LI sound.

Rip Currents: The rip current risk remains moderate through Monday. Ocean swells will be near 3 to 4 ft with some onshore component, and increasing into midweek.

OKX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.