Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Tornado and Flash Flood Watches have been dropped.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Flash flood and severe weather threat has ended for the night, but there could be a few thunderstorms overnight with brief downpours and gusty winds.

2) There is a high risk of rip currents for all ocean beaches through Thursday (see below marine section).

DISCUSSION

.KEY MESSAGE 1... Showers and thunderstorms have diminished in coverage and intensity across the area. Thus, both the tornado and flood watched have ended. However, weak instability and continued lift from the upper trough and jet will still produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight. Brief heavy downpour and gusty winds are possible.

AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A frontal system moves across the terminals through Wednesday.

The bulk of the showers and thunderstorms have ended this evening. A few showers, with possibly a rumble of thunder, may occur through 03z. Otherwise, VFR-MVFR, locally IFR, conditions are expected into early Wednesday. VFR conditions should then prevail on Wednesday late morning into the evening.

There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Have added a PROB30 for this potential, mainly from 19-22z, and for all terminals except SWF.

S-SW flow 10-15 kt this evening with a gusts around 20 kt possible. Winds will likely weaken to around 10 kt overnight and could fall below early Wednesday, especially away from NYC terminals. SW winds become 10-15 kt on Wednesday with occasional gusts up to 20 kt. Winds should begin veering to the W-NW 22z Wed-00z Thu.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty

Shower possible through 03z. Rumble of thunder possible.

Amendments possible for flight category/ceiling changes.

Occasional gusts 20 kt possible late morning into the afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Thursday - Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Southerly gusts 25-30kt expected across ocean waters, LIS, and southern and eastern bays of LI until Wednesday morning.

SCA seas will likely continue thru Wed night, mainly in southerly swells of 5-7ft.

Rip Currents: A high rip current risk is expected through Thursday. Some areas could come close to high surf criteria, mainly tonight into Wednesday. A high surf advisory could eventually be needed, however by the time the swell height and period increase, the swell direction becomes less orthogonal to the coastline, limiting the threat high surf conditions.

OKX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ331-332- 335-340-345-350-353-355.