Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures through Wednesday with afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

- Temperatures will begin cooling midweek. There is a low chance for light showers Friday into the weekend.

SYNOPSIS

Warm and dry weather is expected through the middle of next week with high temperatures through Tuesday in the mid 70s to low 80s. Wednesday through the weekend, temperatures cool to normal. Low chance for light showers Friday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Today through Monday: Expect warmer than normal temperatures through the rest of the weekend and into next week as the upper level ridge over the Pacific Northwest stays in place. Skies will be mostly clear through Monday with no precipitation expected across the forecast area. Sunday and Monday are expected to be the warmest days, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s, roughly 10 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.

Tuesday through Saturday: On Tuesday morning, a low will drop southeast off the British Columbia coast, and lower heights will brush across the state of Washington through the end of the work week. Cluster analysis shows a 90 percent chance that the low will remain far enough off the PNW coast that little to no precipitation is expected. However, it will result in temperatures dropping into low 70s by Wednesday, and cloud cover increasing through the week. On Thursday night into Friday, long- range guidance favors the low retrograding southwestward into the Pacific and then moving northeastward. Cluster analysis is divided on the track of the low; 60 percent of the clusters show the low close enough to result in chances for light precipitation across the area Friday into the weekend. The other 40 percent show the area remaining dry. For right now, the bottom line is: expect overall dry conditions and temperatures cooling down to normal by midweek. /AS

AVIATION

18Z TAFS: VFR conditions continue for all TAF sites as an upper-level ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest. High clouds from a frontal system moving into northern British Columbia will moves through the Inland Northwest today. Winds will be light with speeds generally under 10kts, with locally higher gusts in the Okanogan Valley south to the Waterville Plateau and possibly Wenatchee area this afternoon and evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. Low confidence in gusts to 15 mph at KEAT in the evening.

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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

Spokane 50 82 50 83 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 51 80 51 81 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 49 80 50 82 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 54 84 54 86 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 45 82 45 83 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 48 77 49 78 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 50 78 51 80 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 50 83 51 84 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 59 82 59 83 58 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 53 82 53 83 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0

OTX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

WA...None. ID...None.