Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Heat wave and elevated fire danger continues today. Then finally some relief on the way.

- A cold front arrives tonight/Sunday, bringing medium-high rain chances and more seasonable temperatures next week.

- Limited areas of strong to severe thunderstorms today and Sunday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

At midday, the surface features are fairly well pronounced, with a surface low in central Kansas, roughly to the southwest of Salina, with a trough of low pressure extending southward into northwestern Oklahoma. Surface winds are westerly across the Oklahoma panhandle, while southwest winds are the norm across the remainder of the area. winds aloft are out of the southwest as well, and the low level jet remains strong...keeping surface winds gusting to near 30 mph from Enid to El Reno. These features are ahead of the much anticipated cold front, which is currently stretching from near Guymon to Omaha. 231 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026 Also of note in the near term are the dewpoints and humidity. The same things that will keep folks a bit miserable for any outdoor activities today will also help bring some rain back to the forecast later. The cold front will have everything to do with PoPs, as the front will help trigger some showers or thunderstorms along the front, beginning as early as 8 PM. However, most of these will be west of I-35 & north of I-40. Overnight, a few storms will begin to march east, bringing a few lucky folks some rain in the early morning hours on Sunday.

Chances for rain are fairly low, between 20 and 40% in the northwest. Even a fewer, unluckier folks, will see storms capable of producing some hail to near 1" in diameter...or thunderstorm winds gusting to over 60 mph. These chances are on the low side, with about a 1 in 10 chance for severe weather for areas in the slight risk area today.

Fox

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

While only the northwest and then north see a few thunderstorms tonight and early Sunday, the rain begins to increase in coverage during the day. Thunderstorm chances increase as the front moves south during the daytime hours on Sunday, with the highest rain chances in the afternoon hours. PoPs increase from northwest to southeast through the day, and while not everyone is guaranteed rainfall, the chances are much higher than they have been for months. The rainfall (average rainfall expected to be less than 1") won't be enough to remove concerns from the drought, but the pattern is favorable for the rest of the month.

Also of note, tomorrow will be a normal day for Oklahoma and north Texas. Which means, of course, that there won't be anything normal about it. The northern half of Oklahoma will see highs only reaching the 80s, while the southern half and western north Texas will once again see highs in the upper 90s to near 100. The forecast looks much better (cooler) as we head into next week.

A slight risk of severe thunderstorms also exists tomorrow, generally in central and southeastern Oklahoma. CAPE values on Sunday will rise to the 1500-3000 J/kg range, which is ample energy to be tapped into by strong lift along the cold front. Wind profiles support isolated to clustered thunderstorms with primarily a damaging wind threat, with the strongest storms producing hail around 1". Severe chances on Sunday will once again be around 10 to 20%).

To clarify, however, the chances for rain on Sunday will be in the 40-70% range. The chances for any of those storms to become severe will be around 10%. There's a much higher chance for rain than for severe storms.

Fox231 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Friday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Oklahoma and north Texas will remain in the more seasonable weather pattern through the remainder of the week. Through the mid-week, precipitation chances will mainly be confined to the west where upslope post-frontal air assists in the development of convection on the High Plains, but the question will be if these thunderstorms can move far enough east to reach the 100th Meridian. Storm chances increase Wednesday night and Thursday as models generally show a upper trough approaching the area, although there are differences in the models on the specific evolution of the pattern on Thursday/Friday which would potential affect timing and how high the precipitation chances will be late in the week.

For mid-week (Monday-Wednesday), there's about a 80% probability that thunderstorms remain to our west, with a 20% probability of the storms making their way into far western Oklahoma.

For Wednesday through Friday, overall, the rain and thunderstorm chances increase as the upper level storm moves closer. The rain chances appear to be maximized late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing the potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms. This chance remains about 60%, with about a 40% chance of a slower, drying system moving into Oklahoma and western north Texas.

26/21

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A shortwave trough in the mid-levels moving across the Central Plains of Kansas could impact terminal KWWR in northwest Oklahoma with a 30% probability of severe storm activity by 21Z with those probabilities of convection impacting terminals KPNC & KSWO in northcentral Oklahoma after 02Z. Although ceilings may be high but reduced visibilities in rain could result in brief periods of an MVFR to IFR category along with gusty variable winds. Expect terminals KOKC & KOUN in central Oklahoma and KCSM & KLAW in western Oklahoma to remain in a VFR category at least through 12Z after which a 30-50% probability of storm activity will be possible with brief reductions in visibilities in rain and gusty winds. Expecting terminals KSPS & KDUA to remain in a VFR category and dry through the forecast period. This mid-level system will be pushing a cold front across northwest Oklahoma by 10Z shifting surface winds out of the north-northeast behind it. Expecting this surface boundary/wind shift to only impact terminals KWWR & KCSM through this forecast period with southerly winds prevailing overnight across the rest of our terminals. A low-level jet will increase out of the south overnight with its maxima generally over central Oklahoma, so did add low-level wind shear only at terminals KOKC & KOUN after 06Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

OUN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.