Area Forecast Discussion

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Wilmington, NC (ILM)

Letterhead and timestamp

000 FXZS60 NSTU 040000 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 100 PM SST Tue Nov 3 2026

Discussion

A moist surface profile is evident in the latest upper air sounding, suggesting that passing showers are possible across the territory. Latest satellite imagery shows a line of convective cumulus clouds embedded within the trade wind flow upstream. Model guidance indicates an uptick in showers tonight as these clouds move over the Samoa Island chain. However, the potential for flash flooding remains minimal.

Additionally, a high pressure system to the south is expected to hold a breezy southeasterly wind pattern through the week. Hence, numerous showers and southeast winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected to persist for the forecast period.

Marine

Elevated seas persist due to a southeasterly trade wind regime in the area. Observations from the PacIOOS buoys continue to indicate wave heights of around 10 to 12 feet, with seas expected to peak after midnight. By Wednesday, a downward trend in wave heights is possible as the trade wind regime slightly weakens. However, from Thursday onwards, 20 knot-winds are forecast to maintain choppy ocean conditions for the rest of the week. Hence, a small craft advisory and high surf advisory remain in effect.

PPG WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory

TM