Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow showers expected across the mountains today and tonight, which could bring slick and hazardous travel.

- Drier and warmer conditions return early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 110 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Today - Tomorrow Night: For midweek week, a brief period of active weather is anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado. A compact and quick moving wave will pass over the area through Wednesday into early Thursday, bringing increased forcing and support, along with stronger orographic forcing as flow increases. These forcing mechanisms, along with modest moisture in place, will allow for scattered to widespread showers to develop across the region, blooming from the northwest along the higher terrain Wednesday afternoon, and to the southeast across the plains by Thursday morning. The greatest coverage of precipitation is expected Wednesday evening as the core of the wave passes over. Snow levels will hover around 8,500-9,000ft through Wednesday, and lower to around 6,000-,6500ft by Thursday morning. Snow can be expected above these levels, with snow favoring the higher terrain. The heaviest snow can be expected across the central mountains, with 4-10 inches of snowfall. Other ranges can expect around 1-4 inches of snow. Rain showers can be expected below these levels, primarily for the plains and valleys. With that said, as snow levels drop Wednesday night into Thursday morning, light snow may develop across the Palmer Divide. With that all said, showers are anticipated to start dissipating by early Thursday morning, with dry conditions then prevailing Thursday afternoon. Beyond all of that, mostly clear skies early Wednesday will become cloudy through Wednesday afternoon and night, with clear skies then returning through Thursday as the wave pushes east. Winds can also be expected to remain relatively light, with winds around 10-15 mph, and occasional gusts to around 20-25 mph. Looking at temperatures, cool and near seasonable temperatures can be expected across the region, with a slight dip in temperatures Thursday as a cold front is dragged southward late Wednesday with the wave passage.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 110 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Friday - Saturday: For the end of the week and into the start of the weekend, some active weather may persist for south central and southeastern Colorado. Another wave is expected to push across the region through this timeframe, but there is some uncertainty in how the wave will evolve, primarily in will it be a more open wave or more compact wave like the Wednesday-Thursday one. As of now, current leaning is more open, which ensemble guidance supports, leading to higher confidence in that pattern progression. With this pattern, a brief uptick in ascent can be expected, which may help support isolated to widely scattered shower development across the region. The greatest coverage of showers can be anticipated along the mountains, where any forcing will be maximized. With that all said, any showers present would be expected to dissipate through Saturday, as the wave drops to the south/east and forcing lessens. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected, with winds remaining relatively light around 10-15 mph. As for temperatures, they will also remain fairly stable, with much of the area hovering around to slightly above seasonal values.

Sunday - Tuesday: For the end of the weekend and into early next week. Quiet weather makes a return to south central and southeastern Colorado. Overall, ridging is expected to make a return, bringing increased subsidence and drier air to the area. Given this, dry conditions are anticipated through this period. With that said, there are signals of another wave passage through Tuesday, but confidence in that feature impacting the area is very low (10-20%) at this time. Otherwise, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds can be anticipated. Temperatures through this period will also start a warming trend, with much of south central and southeastern Colorado warming to above seasonal values.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1022 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

KALS: VFR is expected through 24 hours. Winds will be south to southwest, turning more west Wednesday afternoon with increasing mid- level clouds. A few showers may pass through the valley during the afternoon, but confidence in impacts near the terminal are currently too low to include in this round of TAFs.

KCOS: Spotty low-VFR clouds tonight with winds under 10 knots. Flow will turn SE late Weds morning, with increasing clouds. Later in the day into early evening, showers will form over the higher terrain and the Palmer, with possible precipitation at the terminal near the end of this forecast period. Clouds will also drop into MVFR.

KPUB: Winds near or below 10 knots with spotty mid to low-level clouds tonight. Clouds increase by Weds afternoon with showers moving in by the end of this forecast period. Vis and cigs will drop into MVFR, with spotty IFR conditions possible heading into Weds Night.

PUB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ058-060-061-063-082.

PUB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ058-060-061-063-082.