Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather and mild weather returns today and continues through the weekend.

* The next chance for precipitation and gusty winds may arrive for Veterans Day or the second half of next week.

DISCUSSION

For today, model guidance projects the upper low over N NV continuing its trek east-southeast with a trailing ridge moving over region this afternoon. With this ridge aloft, dry conditions are to be expected today with relatively light winds across the region. Daytime high temperatures are forecast to be generally in the 50s this afternoon though W NV locations may be a few degrees cooler than highs experienced yesterday.

Going through tonight and into Thursday, forecast guidance shows a weak trough moving through the NW CONUS which will usher the ridge eastward. This feature aloft will cause an increase in cloud cover tonight and into early Thursday, limiting some overnight cooling. Skies will begin to clear up on Thursday afternoon as the upper trough is expected to move quickly eastward with another ridge moving over the area. This ridge is projected to more or less reside over the region through the rest of the week. Dry conditions will prevail with this setup aloft and temperatures will trend warmer. The forecast currently shows W NV seeing highs in the mid to upper 60s with Sierra communities in the mid-50s to mid-60s range. Reno and Carson City even have a 50-70% NBM probability of hitting the 70 degree mark for a daytime high temperature on Sunday afternoon.

For next week, the ensemble guidance shows the dry pattern possibly beginning to end late Tuesday and into Veterans Day as an upper trough builds in the Pacific. This pattern signals the return of rain and mountain snow chances to region as well as increased winds. Details are still uncertain this far out, but this trough feature could continue to keep wetter weather in the region through the second half of next week. Please continue to watch for forecast updates as this potential system draws closer. -078

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected for most TAF sites today. The exception is at KTRK which sees freezing fog through around 04/16-17Z. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail across the region with relatively lighter winds. Freezing fog may return to the Northern Sierra valleys including KTRK tonight, but low confidence to add to the forecast at this time as increased cloud cover overnight could inhibit fog formation. -078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.