Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front brings showers and possible thunderstorms for Wednesday into Thursday.

2) Cooler temperatures in store this weekend into the next work week with frost/freeze conditions looking probable.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold front will push through the area Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing widespread precipitation. Some models are showing a few areas getting over an inch, but most of the region should receive lower amounts. There is a 10% chance that some areas in southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, and western West Virginia could get 2 inches. Models continue to struggle with precipitation amounts however, so confidence is low. Despite some decent shear and low level helicity values, small CAPE values should prevent strong storms, although a rumble of thunder is possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Much cooler air will move in behind the cold front for the weekend. As high pressure builds in later in the weekend and into the next work week, nighttime temperatures are expected to get cold enough for frost and freezing temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Some low level wind shear can be expected in eastern West Virginia and southwest Virginia early this morning.

Some MVFR or lower clouds are possible on the east side of the mountains this morning, but further west, expect VFR conditions.

A cold front will then bring showers and possibly thunderstorms for later today and tonight, with ceilings gradually lowering to MVFR. Ceilings along the higher elevations of the mountains could become IFR later tonight.

Southeast to southerly winds in advance of the front will shift to southwesterly behind the front.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of LLWS ending in eastern WV and SW VA could vary. Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE WED 11/04/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EST 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... Areas of IFR conditions may be possible in precipitation and low ceilings Thursday, particularly across the mountains.

RLX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.