Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Chances of strong storms and locally heavy rain return to the area this evening and then persist into mid week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled through mid week, with daily chances of locally heavy downpours and a few strong to severe thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An upper-level trough and low, currently located over southern Idaho, is projected to track east into the central Plains this weekend into early next week. As it approaches, a weak ridge of high pressure will retreat south, permitting a series of disturbances to traverse the Middle Ohio Valley (MOV) and Central Appalachians, amid otherwise zonal flow. Meanwhile, a front lifts into the area on SUnday and the lingers nearby through the first part of the work week.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase this evening and persist into the work week, with most substantial activity occurring in the vicinity of the front, and in conjunction with the passing disturbances. Heavy downpours and training storms will be capable of depositing a couple inches of rain in a fairly short amount of time. Thus, the primary concern during this time will be a heightened risk of flash flooding. A few strong to severe storms could also be capable of producing locally strong wind gusts.

From mid to late week, the pattern remains unsettled as the upper trough progresses into the MOV and then slowly spirals towards the east coast. Additional precipitation over already saturated soils will sustain at least low-end flooding concerns for the majority of the work week.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

MVFR to VFR ceilings are expected through the afternoon, then flight conditions are likely to deteriorate as showers and storms spread into the area this evening. Restrictions may also be possible within areas of fog and low stratus that develop overnight. Periods of sub-VFR conditions then remain possible as a front sustains shower and storm activity on Sunday.

Winds are generally expected to be light and southerly today, then turn southwesterly on Sunday. Locally strong wind gusts could, however, be possible in thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers/storms and associated restrictions may vary from the forecast. Some fog may also be possible overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions possible in showers and storms each day through mid week.

RLX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.