Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather expected Sunday through Wednesday as a front remains stalled over the region...temperatures trending cooler by Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled weather expected Sunday through Wednesday as a front remains stalled over the region...temperatures trending cooler by Wednesday.

Stalled front to our south will return as a warm front Sunday, only to clash with another southward moving upper level trough Monday and Tuesday. A wholesale uptick in rain chances are expected for both Monday and Tuesday. 48 hour probabilistic ensemble guidance indicates 80 percent chance for 0.50, 50% chance of 1.00 and 25% chance of 1.50 or more. This is good news since we are in need of the rain.

By Wednesday the upper trough digs in from the northwest while the front shifts southeast. Cooler air from the north with high pressure wedge will have our highs Wednesday running 10 to 15 degrees below normal, followed by a gradual return to near normal temperatures by the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Mainly VFR this afternoon and evening, then transitioning back to MVFR or lower overnight as moisture remains trapped underneath a subsidence inversion. River fog also possible in the mountain valleys.

Any fog/low cigs should lift again Sunday per daytime mixing with return to VFR. There is a better chance for cloud build-ups Sunday afternoon developing into scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Not enough confidence for storms to place in the TAFs attm.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Shower/storm chances increase Monday and Tuesday with numerous to widespread coverage. During this time expect periods of sub- VFR conditions and potential heavy rain. Fog at night can also be expected, especially in the mountain valleys.

RNK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

VA...None. NC...None. WV...None.