Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast except to lower rainfall amounts in the Piedmont.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rainfall tonight then more scattered Thursday into Friday

2) Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Friday, returning to near normal this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Rainfall tonight then becoming more scattered Thursday and Friday

Low pressure over the upper Midwest will occlude by Wed evening. A front moves slowly east toward the coalfields of KY this evening while southeast to south flow increases into the southern Appalachians. Models are still favoring showers developing as early as mid afternoon in the NC mountains then a broken line of showers moves in from WV/KY. As far as thunderstorms, could see enough instability for a few in the far southwest VA area toward Marion/Chilhowie this evening. Better support for thunderstorms will reside further southwest into the TN Valley and Smokys. The best chance of rain will be in the mountains to Blue Ridge then more scattered in nature east of Lynchburg and Danville tonight.

A brief lull then occurs on Thursday, despite the front still remaining off to the west, due to drier air across the area. A slight chance of showers remains possible, before another disturbance dives down around the upper-level trough and interacts with the cold front over our area Thursday night into Friday morning. Models have shifted the better rainfall just east of us Thu night into Friday but still think enough lift with the low pressure to the south to have likely pops in the Piedmont.

Rain totals mainly vary from a quarter to half inch, with less over the foothills of VA, an more across the NC mountains and portions of WV.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Friday, returning to near normal this weekend.

As high pressure continues to shift offshore into the Atlantic, southerly flow will return to the Mid-Atlantic, causing temperatures to be well above normal for this time of year. High temperatures through the end of the week will be in the upper 60s for the mountains, and mid to upper 70s in the Piedmont. A few spots could even reach 80 degrees Wednesday and Thursday, which is about 15 degrees above normal. Behind the cold front, temperatures "cool" back off to only slightly above normal, with highs mainly in the 60s, with upper 50s for the highest elevations.

Overnight lows will also be very mild through the end of the week, in the 50s/60s Wednesday night. By Saturday night, overnight lows fall into the 30s area-wide, which is around normal. This continues through the middle of next week.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Going to see potential fog to low clouds from the Blue Ridge east tonight as low level flow off the Atlantic brings moisture in. Confidence per sounding forecasts leaning higher toward fog vs stratus, and potential exists for some vsbys to drop to 1sm at LYH/DAN.

Further west, should be VFR.

Any fog/stratus should rise to VFR by 14-15z. Front approaching brings increase VFR cigs through the day lowering to MVFR in the west after 00z, with showers moving in.

Southeast winds will be light/calm except gusty around BLF through most of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A cold front will sweep from west to east across the region into Thursday, spreading widespread rainfall along its path and likely dropping flight conditions below visual thresholds. Even after the boundary pushes through, lingering showers will persist on Friday to keep overcast skies and periodic flight restrictions in place. The damp weather will finally surrender to drier air by Saturday, allowing skies to clear just in time for a pleasant, calm weekend.

RNK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

VA...None. NC...None. WV...None.