Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM tonight. Highs in the upper 90s with heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees can be expected. Daily records may continue to be tied or broken. - Shower and thunderstorm chances (40-70%) return Sunday afternoon and evening, and persist into Monday. A low chance (5%) for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm, with the primary risk being quarter sized hail and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- Near average temperatures in the 70s to near 80 ahead Tuesday and through the remainder of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

This Afternoon-Tonight: A upper-level ridge continues to support extreme heat across the region today, with highs once again into the upper 90s to near 100. Record high temperatures may be tied or broken, as seen with the last several days (see Climate section). Dewpoints have struggled to push 60 today, keeping heat index values in check around 100, with a few locations exceeding 100 where dewpoints get into lower/middle 60s. Otherwise, minimal clouds across the area this afternoon with breezy south-southwest winds. A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 pm this evening, with no plans to extend headlines beyond into Sunday.

In addition to the heat, fire weather remains elevated this afternoon as a result of relative humidity values dipping to around 25 to 35 percent in the vicinity of breezy and hot conditions. This is of greatest concern in the grasslands west of Highway 65.

A pattern change is on the horizon for Sunday and Monday, as the upper-level ridge will shift east of the region with an approaching trough. This trough and associated shortwave energy will support scattered shower and thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday, in addition to much cooler temperatures behind the frontal passage. The first look at rain chances (30-60%) glance portions of southeast KS and west central MO tonight into early Sunday morning. Most of the area remains dry, though a strong elevated thunderstorm or two remains possible in this area. Lows fall into the lower 70s tonight.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Sunday-Monday: Ahead of the frontal passage, temperatures remain hot in the lower to middle 90s on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, moisture will be on increase with dewpoints reaching into the middle to upper 60s. The environment by Sunday afternoon will feature ample instability (MUCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg) overlaying mediocre shear (25-30 knots). This would suggest single cells to multicell clusters being the favored storm mode, with a low chance (5%) for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm. This is captured in the SPC Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Outlook on Sunday. Primary hazards would be quarter sized hail and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. However, most activity is expected to remain sub-severe at this time. From a coverage standpoint, showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain scattered in nature. The highest coverage looks to occur along and north of Interstate 44 on Sunday evening into Sunday night, before the front pushes through into Monday morning. The associated rain chances shift east on Monday with the frontal passage. Rainfall amounts look to remain limited to a quarter to a half inch north of Interstate 44, before tapering off to a tenth of an inch into southern MO. It is worth noting that CAMs have backed off a bit with coverage through Sunday night, which may support lower PoPs in future forecast updates if the trend continues. Nonetheless, the limited rainfall amounts will do little to improve worsening drought conditions.

On Monday, north-northwest winds will gradually usher in a cooler airmass after a hot September thus far. Highs will only top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the north.

Tuesday-Friday: Behind the frontal passage, much cooler temperatures overspread the area. Tuesday will feature highs in the 70s, which is near to below normal for mid September. A slight trend up into late week, with highs reaching into upper 70s and lower 80s. This pattern change will be welcoming to the area after a few weeks of hot weather. However, there is no mentionable PoPs beyond Monday. This period of dry weather will support worsening drought conditions, and a potential early onset of fall fire weather season.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 546 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Clouds will increase during the day Sunday however rain chances remain slim. Have only included a prob30 group for JLN for now. Winds will remain out of the south to southwest however a brief wind shift to the north will occur at JLN Sunday morning however exact timing is uncertain.

CLIMATE

Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 19: KSGF: 96/1954 KJLN: 99/2024 KUNO: 97/1954 KVIH: 100/1954

September 20: KSGF: 97/1954 KJLN: 99/1954 KVIH: 95/1954 KUNO: 97/1954

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 19: KSGF: 73/1931 KJLN: 77/2005 KUNO: 71/2018 KVIH: 74/1978

September 20: KSGF: 74/2018 KJLN: 75/1980 KUNO: 74/2018 KVIH: 73/2018

SGF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.