Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of drizzle persist through early this morning, before dissipating after sunrise.

- Light rain chances return on Thursday (20-40%), with the greatest chances west of Highway 65.

- Drier and cooler this weekend, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows in the 30s will introduce the potential for frost and freeze.

- Warming trend early next week, with a return of temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 230 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

This Morning-Tonight: Persistent areas of drizzle/light rain across the Ozark Plateau this morning. Additionally, breezy westerly winds make for a rather chilly early November morning. Drizzle looks to diminish towards sunrise. Clouds are expected to linger through much of today as a mid- level low slowly builds east into the Great Lakes region. This will keep temperatures cooler this afternoon, with highs in the lower 60s. It is plausible even cooler maximum temperatures are realized if scattering of low- level clouds does not occur. This would keep the area closer to the middle to upper 50s. For tonight, clearing skies will give way to a chilly night with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Even lower temperatures in the 30s can be expected across the valleys of the eastern Ozarks. Some patchy frost remains plausible in these areas.

Thursday: Ensemble guidance continues to depict the next shortwave and associated frontal passage move into the area on Thursday. However, trends suggest lower coverage of PoPs and potential amounts. The latest forecast highlights 20-40% chances of light scattered showers. Rainfall amounts look to remain light, as the latest NBM probabilities for greater than a tenth of an inch are around 10-30%. In general, the limited moisture return may result in a dry frontal passage for most of the area, with the highest chances confined to along and west of Interstate 49. Winds become north- northwest behind the frontal passage on Thursday evening, with lows falling into the lower 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

This Weekend: Another longwave trough digs into the region this weekend, with the jet stream remaining displaced south of the area. Thus, drier weather looks likely through the weekend as well. As the trough drops into the Southern Plains, cooler air filters into the area, with highs more seasonable in the middle/upper 50s to lower 60s. Meanwhile, this pattern will be accompanied by cooler overnight temperatures, with widespread lows in the 30s expected each morning. The growing season continues into early November as captured in the latest MRCC Vegetation Freeze Susceptibility Guidance, showing all of the area as still susceptible. For this weekend, lows in the middle 30s and calm overnight winds look to set the stage for frost. However, the greatest potential for lows below freezing are currently focused across the eastern Ozarks, where lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s looks likely. The potential for frost/freeze headlines will continue to be assessed as we approach this weekend.

Next Week: As we get into early next week, a ridge looks to take hold over the central and western CONUS. As mid-level heights increase, as will the temperatures once again into mid-November. This matches up well with CPC's latest 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks, highlighting increasing confidence in above normal temperatures. NBM interquartile spreads continue to shrink, with highs progged to return to the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is anywhere from 5 to 10+ degrees above normal for early to mid November. Drier conditions look to persist, which may amplify the mid-Fall fire weather conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1100 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A system is gradually clearing the area overnight, with lingering MVFR ceilings around 1500 feet. A few instances of IFR may occur within areas of drizzle, with reduced visibilities around 2 to 4 miles, in addition to ceilings around 900 feet. Light areas of drizzle dissipate towards 12Z on Wednesday morning.

Westerly winds persist through the period, with occasional gusts up to 20 knots at KJLN and KSGF.

SGF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.