Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1236 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Cooler and drier air will continue filter in behind the recent cold front with more seasonable temperatures expected through the end of this week. - A weaker cold front will move through the region on Friday, reinforcing the cool and dry air mass already in place with little if any chance of additional rainfall. - An upper-level disturbance will eject the from the Rockies into the Plains by late this weekend and may induce some scattered showers for parts of our region on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1236 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

After some very welcome and much needed rainfall over the past 24 hours, the pattern will trend drier and generally cooler over the next 7 days. Temperatures will be seasonable behind yesterday's cold front with daily highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s through the end of the work week. A weak reinforcing cold front will pass quietly through the region on Friday with little fanfare as a lack of moisture should preclude any chances of rain despite some added forcing along an accompanying shortwave trough. Slight cooler temperatures are expected on Saturday with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s from north to south.

By Saturday night into the day on Sunday, our next chance of rain will emerge as an upper-level trough is progged to dive southeast from the Four Corners region and Southern Rockies before spilling into our region. However, it doesn't appear that rainfall will be widespread despite the increased forcing as moisture will continue to remain quite limited. If anything, the increasing cloud cover and prevailing NE sfc winds will yield even cooler temperatures on Sunday into Monday with highs generally ranging through the 60s. Medium-range guidance diverges beyond that with a more progressive pattern depicted by the GFS while the Euro struggles to fully lift the trough out of the area. For now, will continue to trend with a drier forecast and seasonably mild temperatures to begin early next week although the chance of a longer period of unsettled weather will certainly bear watching.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1102 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

For the 04/06Z TAFs, high pressure building behind a cold front will maintain northwest winds 5 to 10 knots through Wednesday, becoming light and variable after 05/00Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions to prevail through most of the period.

/05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1236 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.