Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- Heat advisory/warning hazards continue through this evening and will be needed for some areas again Wednesday, but a weak cool front advancing into our northern zones will dictate changes.

- Although this front isn't expected to bring rainfall, slightly milder temperatures and drier air will take the edge off the heat for a few days late this week.

- The heat "relief" will be brief as the front will stall and lift back north by the weekend while Tropical Storm Bertha is expected to move inland across SE TX with no impacts for us.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Dangerous heat will continue to impact the region this afternoon and early evening as our current heat headlines remain unchanged for now. To avoid confusion going forward into Wednesday, updates to heat advisory/warning products will be made with the expiration of the current headlines later on this evening. At the moment, it appears areas along and south of I-20 will warrant an Extreme Heat Warning for Wednesday as compressional warming occurs in advance of a weak cool front advancing into our northern zones Wednesday morning. It's possible a Heat Advisory may be needed as a buffer between areas in the warning and those in our far northern zones where heat headlines don't appear necessary on Wednesday given the earlier arrival of the front. It will take some time for this air mass to filter farther south, thus the need for a continuation of heat headlines in our southern zones where heat indices are likely to peak in excess of 110 degrees on Wednesday. Once again, future updates will outline this threat in more specificity this evening.

Once we move beyond Wednesday, the slight reprieve from our recent heat and humidity will only last a few days. At most, we may shave a few degrees off of afternoon highs for Thursday and Friday along with slightly lower dew points but this will all be short-lived. By early this weekend, the front will quickly lift back north as the upper ridge continues to largely dominate across all of the SW and S Cntrl CONUS. Therefore, expect temperatures to trend hotter as upper 90s become widespread once again with a few triple-digit highs mixed each day from this weekend into early next week. With the track of Tropical Storm Bertha expected to remain well to our south, rain chances will remain largely negligible. So beyond the stray afternoon convection across our eastern zones today and any isolated pop-up activity through this weekend, look for rain-free conditions to prevail as we enter what is climatologically our hottest period of the year from late July into early August.

/19/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period at most terminals. The tail end of showers around KMLU should dissipate soon after the start of this package, staying VFR through the rest of the period. Winds will be light and variable overnight before shifting northeasterly and strengthening late tomorrow morning. Expect winds to hover around 10 kts, with some sites occasionally gusting higher during the afternoon. /57/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AR...Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT tonight for ARZ050-051- 059>061-070>073.

LA...Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT tonight for LAZ004>006- 013-014-019>022.

Heat Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for LAZ001>003-010>012- 017-018.

OK...Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT tonight for OKZ077.

TX...Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ096-097.

Heat Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ108>112-124>126- 136>138-149>153-165>167.