Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 705 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through early next week. Highs will range from the low to middle 90s across inland areas, with heat indices ranging from 96-104F.

- Rain chances increase on Sunday, especially in the Florida Counties, and continue Monday. Afternoon thunderstorms this evening and again on Sunday may have gusty winds and small hail, in addition to lightning.

SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM

(This Evening through next Friday) Issued at 156 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A cut-off low in the mid-levels of the atmosphere near the FL Peninsula is modeled to eject northeastward by Tuesday in response to a trough over the Ohio Valley, which is about a day faster compared to yesterday. This feature will be the main driver of our sensible weather through early next week. Expect chances of afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms to increase on Sunday and continue on Monday. In particular, cannot rule out some strong storms today and again Sunday.

For this afternoon and evening, diffuse convergence is setting up near the TLH-VLD corridor, where SB CAPE is modeled to maximize in 3-4k J/kg range, while PWATs approach 2.0 inches across the entire region. Any showers and thunderstorms within this corridor will be aided by subtle shortwaves aloft, as the sea breeze is pinned closer to the coast due to NE low to mid-level flow, with addt'l activity moving into SE AL and possibly further south into the FL Panhandle. Model soundings indicate inverted-v/caret profiles w/ steep low to mid-level lapse rates and DCAPE around 800 J/kg. So in addition to lightning, gusty winds are possible with storms and perhaps some small hail making it to the surface with the taller cores. Activity will diminish around sunset. Tonight, patchy fog is possible, especially FL near and to the east of the Aucilla River, Southwest GA to the east of the Flint River, and from the Chatahoochee River Valley of AL/GA into portions of Southeast AL.

It looks like "rinse and repeat" for Sunday and Monday in terms of showers/storms with a similar pattern in place, although CAMs shift much of the activity into the FL Counties, which would be supported by greater inland sea breeze penetration. As mentioned above, with the cut-off low expected to eject out of the region about a day faster, precip chances have come down Tuesday where they're focused toward the Suwanee Valley, and Wednesday begins a much drier forecast which continues into Friday.

Otherwise, unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through early next week. Highs will range from the low to middle 90s across inland areas, with heat indices ranging from 96-104F. A gradually cooler/drier air mass works in from mid to late week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 705 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A cluster of showers and storms continues to move through southeastern Alabama this evening. Outflow is racing ahead of the storms and will impact KECP within the next few hours. Have elected to leave TSRA out of KECP's TAF at this time, but we'll closely monitor radar trends, so an amendment or two may be possible. Elsewhere, a few showers and storms east of Tallahassee are moving west, so included some VCTS for a few hours this evening to account for those.

There are a few indications of another cluster of showers and storms moving in from the northeast late tonight into early Sunday morning. However, recent model trends have been for it to weaken before impacting any of the terminals, most notably KVLD, KABY, and KTLH, so have elected to not include it in the TAFs at this time due to very low confidence.

A bit of MVFR to IFR ceilings will be possible for KVLD and KABY tonight.

Another round of afternoon showers and storms are forecast again Sunday with PROB30s at all TAF sites highlighting the best potential for that.

MARINE

Issued at 156 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Gentle to moderate Northeast breezes expected the next several days with high pressure generally north of the waters. Within the seabreeze zone, moderate onshore flow will develop each afternoon into the evening before switching offshore during the overnight hours. Shower and thunderstorms will increase late this weekend into early next week due to a cut-off area of low pressure in the mid-levels of the atmosphere.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 156 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Northeast transport winds continue through early next week resulting in a sea breeze pinned closer to the coast each afternoon. Through Monday, the air mass will continue to gradually moisten with Minimum afternoon RH increasing to the mid-40s to mid-50s. The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will also increase on Sunday and continue Monday, with the greatest coverage of activity in the FL Counties. Erratic and gusty winds, in addition to lightning, are the main concerns. Some pockets of low dispersion may persist into Sunday afternoon mainly across portions of Southwest GA and Southeast AL.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 156 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase this weekend into early next week, especially in the FL Counties, then decrease by midweek. While locally heavy rainfall may lead to minor flooding within areas of poor drainage, the probability of flash flooding is low and there are no riverine flooding concerns over the next several days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TAE WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.