Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 753 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- Tropical Storm Bertha will continue to bring squally weather from the coastal to inland counties via outer rainbands into tomorrow. The main concerns are gusty winds (tropical storm force at times), heavy rain, rip currents, rough surf, minor coastal flooding.

- Tropical Storm Warnings in effect from South Walton to coastal Bay County and waters west of Apalachicola where tropical storm conditions are expected, especially within stronger rainbands.

- Minor coastal (saltwater) flooding is expected across Apalachee Bay and the FL Panhandle coast into Wednesday. The Wind Advisory has been extended until 8AM EDT from coastal Gulf to the coastal Franklin-Jefferson border for gusts up to 45 mph.

SHORT TERM

(This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

As of 2PM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located 90 mi SW of Panama City on a slow general westward track with max sustained winds of 60 mph. Although Bertha has a well-defined circulation, it is broad and displaced from deeper convection to its south thanks to northerly shear. Little change in strength is forecast. Outer rainbands continue to periodically move ashore with embedded cells producing strong-gusty winds, tropical downpours, and perhaps an isolated weak tornado. We will monitor additional rainband formation this afternoon into the evening. The main highlights so far today have been frequent tropical storm force gusts along the coast (40-50 mph), minor coastal (saltwater) flooding, dangerous surf, and very rough seas. Expect these conditions to persist into tomorrow.

The tropical threat should gradually subside through Wednesday as Bertha pulls farther away from us while on a gradual weakening trend. The axis of greatest precipitation focuses along/west of the Apalachicola River where outer rainbands within Bertha's eastern quadrant are expected to be moving from south to north during the afternoon. Tomorrow is likely to be the last round of squally weather from this activity, so the aforementioned hazards should persist, but shift westward.

Low temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 70s while highs climb to the low 90s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Our sensible weather improves to start the long-term period with only low-end rain chances mainly across the Wiregrass Region, in close proximity to a neighboring front to our north through Saturday. A more typical summertime pattern returns early next week when diurnal seabreeze-driven thunderstorms come back into play. Hazardous heat is also likely to become a concern as heat indices are poised to climb well above 100 degrees. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 753 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Broad areas of MVFR ceilings are expected overnight and winds shift to more of a SE/S component for the overnight hours. Speeds should lessen as well overnight. By daybreak, any ongoing MVFR conditions should lift by 14z with gusty southerly winds returning, though speeds will not be as high as what we observed Tuesday as TS Bertha will be moving further away from the area. A few isolated to scattered showers are possible during the afternoon, mostly across ECP/DHN.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

As of 2PM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located 90 miles southwest of Panama City with max sustained winds of 60 mph. Little change in strength is forecast today and tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for waters west of Apalachicola. Outer rainbands will continue to periodically move across the waters the through tomorrow and be capable of tropical storm force winds and gusts, waterspouts, heavy rain, and very high seas. Rough marine conditions look to improve by Wednesday or Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

There are minimal fire concerns over the next 2-3 days thanks, in part to Tropical Storm Bertha, located 90 mi SW of Panama City as of 2PM EDT. Expect squally weather consisting of on/off showers & thunderstorms with gusty winds and pockets of heavy rain. Highest rain chances shift to along/west of the Apalachicola River on Wednesday. High afternoon dispersions are forecast tomorrow. A front dropping in from the north shifts rain chances to the Wiregrass Region to conclude the work week.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Rainbands from Tropical Storm Bertha continue to move inland across much of the region and will remain capable of producing locally heavy downpours through Wednesday - e.g., potentially quick 1-2 inches (isolated 4 inches). Some localized flooding is possible, but nothing of much significance.

A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect from the Jefferson- through Walton County. Persistent onshore flow in Apalachee Bay produced 2-2.5 ft of inundation earlier today with observed flooding in the Panhandle (around 2 ft at Panama City Beach) this afternoon during low tide. Expect additional rises during the high tide cycles through tonight into tomorrow morning. These values/observations typically result in flooding of low-lying beach access roads and other coastal adjacent properties in Apalachee Bay and beach access areas into parking lots and some low-lying roads along the immediate coast in the Panhandle.

As Tropical Storm Bertha moves further away from the area on Wednesday, water levels along the coast should drop enough where advisories are no longer necessary.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TAE WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Wednesday for FLZ108-112-114-115-118-127.

High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ108- 112-114-115.

High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Thursday for FLZ108- 112-114.

Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ108-112.

Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Wednesday for FLZ114-115- 127.

GA...None. AL...None. GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ735-751-752-770-772.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for GMZ730-755-765- 775.