Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- High risk of dangerous rip currents along area beaches through Wednesday.

- Hazardous marine conditions with large choppy seas into Wednesday.

UPDATE

IR Satellite imagery showing the two impressive weather features in the Eastern U.S. this evening with a large convective complex moving Eward through the Mid Atlantic region as TS Bertha slowly churns Wward along the N Central Gulf Coast while the FL Peninsula is in a dry slot between these larges systems.

The TS Bertha wind field continues to produce beach and marine hazards for our local area as rough choppy seas over 7 ft both offshore and nearshore waters. These seas moving ashore will continue to produce rough surf with dangerous rip currents through Wednesday. The rip current statement may need to be extended into Thursday as well, if residual longer period swells from Bertha move ashore local beaches.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Gusty afternoon S winds to decouple and decrease after sunset. VRF conditions all areas tonight with clearing skies into Wednesday morning. Wed afternoon seabreeze with PROB30s back into SW FL terminals.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Tropical Storm Bertha is slowly pushing west and away from West Central Florida. As it does so we will some drier air filter into the area. This morning sounding is already showing PW around 1.6. This lower moisture will stick around through at least Thursday giving us lower rainshower chances. Bertha moving away will also start to decrease our winds with today being the last day we see gradient winds in the 20 to 30 knot gust range.

By Friday we will see an increase in moisture down in Southwest Florida. This will help to bring higher shower and storm chances mainly south of I-4 to end our work week.

Saturday will be a transition day for us as the ridge starts heading south of our area. This will give us a weak southerly flow bringing some isolated showers to the west coast of Florida but PoPs will remain in the 30 percent range. By Sunday the ridge will be to our south bringing a more southwesterly flow to the area through Monday. This will keep most of the shower activity inland and along the east

MARINE

Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

As Tropical Storm Bertha start to slowly drift away from the west coast of Florida we will see winds slowly diminish and should be below Small Craft Criteria by the early overnight hours. However, waves are currently running anywhere between 5 to 7 feet and should take a little longer to come down resulting in us continuing our Small Craft through Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon winds and waves should be low enough that small craft will be able to expire. After that winds will remain around 5 to 10 knots through Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

As Tropical Storm Bertha starts to move away drier air will start to filter in bringing drier air for our Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will also start to calm down by tonight with lighter winds expected for the rest of the week. Some showers chances will start to return Friday and Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Tampa Bay waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.