Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

-Feeling more like fall with cooler and drier conditions.

-Slight warming trend expected late this weekend and early next week.

-No measurable precipitation is forecast through next Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Low pressure is now well northeast of the area, over southern MN early this morning. The associated stratus deck over northeast KS will eventually clear from southwest to northeast across the area today as the system continues northward. CAA within northwest flow continues this morning until winds shift more westerly this afternoon. Temperatures in the 40s are expected to top out in the upper 50s today. Dew points are also lower than previous days, providing more of a typical fall-like feel.

A mid-level trough axis moves over the area tomorrow as another closed low from the west phases with our departing system. A small area of light rain should stay south of the CWA tomorrow, but some cloud cover looks to move back in. Sfc and H5 ridging keep conditions dry for the end of the week. Temperatures will be slightly cooler in the mid 50s Friday afternoon before dipping into the mid 30s by Saturday morning. A slight warming trend is expected late this weekend and early next week with a ridge building aloft. Long range models show another low pressure system becoming cutoff late this weekend, moving somewhere into the central CONUS. Exact locations differ but most solutions keep weather dry across the region into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 510 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Timing of the MVFR stratus becoming VFR is the main challenge this period. Based on forecast soundings, stratus could hold over the airports most of the day with gradual lifting and eventually some scattering of the deck late this afternoon. West winds increase to 10 to 15 kts by midday, weakening around sunset.

TOP WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.