Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Near record temperatures continue Saturday.

- Fire weather concerns will be elevated Saturday across eastern Oklahoma.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday night and increase Sunday through Sunday night as a slow moving cold front passes.

- Noticeably cooler temperatures arrive next week.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

One more hot afternoon is in store across the region as temperatures climb into the upper 90s to near 100 again for most locations. Lower humidity will continue, which will at least keep heat indices below advisory criteria. Surface low pressure continues to deepen over the High Plains of western Kansas, with an associated cold front extending southwestward into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle Region. The result of the tightening gradient will be an increase in gusty southwesterly winds across the area this afternoon. The winds combined with the lower humidity, record temperatures, and ongoing drought conditions will raise fire concerns for this afternoon. The strongest winds will reside across northeast Oklahoma, though more receptive fuels are likely across southeast Oklahoma where there has been less recent rainfall.

Later into the afternoon and evening, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the slowly advancing frontal boundary across northern Oklahoma. These storms will slowly track east northeastward toward portions of northeast Oklahoma overnight tonight. Current indications are that this activity will weaken as it gets removed from the boundary and will generally stall out northwest of I-44 late tonight and dissipate in the pre dawn hours Sunday. The initial cluster of storms could pose an isolated severe risk across far northwestern portions of the forecast area, with damaging winds the main threat.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Lingering showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible mainly along and north of I-44 through the mid morning hours Sunday as the front slowly tracks into northeastern Oklahoma. Additional thunderstorm development is likely along the actual frontal boundary by late Sunday morning into the afternoon. Initial development is expected across northeast Oklahoma, eventually growing into one or more southeastward advancing clusters through Sunday evening. Initial cells could be strong to severe, posing a damaging wind and hail threat through the afternoon hours. As clusters become more organized, a more widespread damaging wind threat could develop into the evening, along with locally heavy rainfall. Most of this activity should exit the forecast area overnight Sunday. Scattered showers or storms could linger into Monday morning within the elevated frontal zone/WAA regime that will stall out over eastern Oklahoma.

A much more seasonal airmass will arrive in the wake of the front and finally put an end to the prolonged period of extreme heat. Generally near normal temperatures are expected through much of next week, with low humidity and light winds through the period. Temperatures could even trend somewhat below normal on Monday and Tuesday as lingering cloud cover remains over the region through much of the day. The forecast will remain mostly dry through the rest of the period after Monday, as mid level ridging remains in the vicinity and builds more over the Southern Plains by late week. A few periods of showers may try to sneak into northeast Oklahoma through the week, but otherwise a dry forecast will prevail into the latter part of the week when another front could approach the region.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Tough TAF forecast for mainly the NE OK terminals, with potential for multiple rounds of TSRA to impact them through the period. Expectation is still for this evening/s storms to diminish upon approaching the terminals although an outflow boundary may move through. BVO has the highest chance of having impacts mainly after sunrise tomorrow and both the PROB30 and the TEMPO will be maintained, albeit with altered time frames. PROB30s for two potential rounds of storm impacts will continue for TUL/RVS. MLC may see storms prior to the end of the TAF period but the chance is higher after 21/00Z. Will include a brief PROB30 there at the end of the TAF period. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions will prevail.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TSA WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.