Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Temperatures will hover within a few degrees of seasonal normals through the work week with otherwise quiet conditions.

* Northerly winds will pick up Friday and Saturday, with stronger speeds and elevated wave heights along the Colorado River Valley.

DISCUSSION

Today through Tuesday.

Expect dry conditions, temperatures within a few degrees of seasonal normals, and afternoon breeziness through the work week. Shortwave ridging will persist across the Desert Southwest for another day before a weak closed low pushes into the central California Coast and across the Great Basin on Wednesday. Impacts from this system will be minimal, with only a slight uptick in wind speeds across the forecast area (10 to 20 mph gusts in the afternoon, with gusts to 25 mph in the higher terrain).

Heading into the weekend, heights will increase west-to-east thanks to a high pressure system in the eastern Pacific Ocean. This will allow temperatures to increase to slightly-above normal. In addition to this ridge, a shortwave will move along the upper-level flow and will ultimately cut off in the southeastern Pacific Ocean late-week into the weekend. Associated with this trough axis, an open wave will push southeastward through our forecast area on Saturday. The resultant tightened pressure gradients across the region will increase northerly wind gusts on Friday and Saturday to 15 to 25 mph. Along the Colorado River Valley, these north winds will be enhanced by local topographic features, which will allow speeds to range 30 to 40 mph at times, with wave heights on Lake Mohave and Lake Havasu to 3 feet. Will continue to assess the need for a wind- related headline as we get closer. Quiet conditions return for the remainder of the weekend into the start of next week.

AVIATION...For Harry Reid

For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light winds will persist through the morning. Winds will become north around 18Z before veering northeast at 040-050 degrees (true) after 21Z, but speeds will likely remain under 8KT through the afternoon at KLAS. KHND will also see winds under 8KT, but expect northwest winds at KVGT around 10KT this afternoon with isolated gusts up to 20KT. Winds will shift to a typical overnight wind direction under 8KT around sunset. Moderate confidence that winds will become northwest again at KLAS around 09Z then persist into early Thursday morning when they will become light and variable again. VFR skies expected through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...In general, light winds favoring the north to northwest are expected this morning into the afternoon. The Owens Valley in California as well as the Colorado River Valley will see stronger north winds at 10-15KT, gusting over 20KT at times this afternoon. Winds will diminish after sunset and light winds return tonight. Mostly clear VFR skies are expected through the period.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.